Though elections feel sometimes like they never,
and we are now in a year where one is
officially to take place and the first Test is approaching,
the Iowa caucuses are less than two weeks away.
The New Hampshire primary will be just over a week.
After that, three candidates will have the chance to debate
again before the 15th.
But with Donald Trump skipping the event as he has
all previous debates,
it will be a head to head exchange between Ron
DeSantis and Nikki Haley.
CBS News chief election and campaign correspondent Robert Costa joins
me now to talk about the race.
Bob, Both DeSantis and Haley,
or their campaigns anyway are trying to bait the former
president into debating.
A member of the DeSantis campaign said they'd even
have it be a sit down debate if that was
more relaxing for the president.
Any chance any of this bait is going to work?
A? And B, now that the field has shrunk,
at least in terms of debates,
will it matter at all that President Trump is not
there in terms of where the race is right now?
John, it's good to be with you.
And it's so evident as this New Year kicks off
that we are entering A volatile period in American politics
and especially in the Republican presidential race.
All of those candidates you just outlined,
especially those rivals of former President Donald Trump,
they are trying to create something out of what has
been essentially nothing for months.
Momentum has not been there for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis,
a former Ambassador Nikki Haley,
New Jersey governor, former New Jersey governor Chris Christie or
some of the others running.
It's been very hard to get traction,
but they're trying to create
momentum for their campaigns. This idea that they can stay
in this race not just through Iowa and New Hampshire
but through Super Tuesday.
But to do that is very difficult.
I think of the Pablo Picasso quote,
Every act of creation begins with an act of destruction
and they're trying to destroy each other in the process
to just get through
survive and get to that head to head race with
Donald Trump.
If that ever happens for any of them,
when you talk about trying to create something out of
nothing,
it's part of the psychology of these campaigns.
You know, people claim momentum when momentum is really just
a fiction a lot of times.
So in that context, often with primaries and caucuses,
there is an expectations game.
So people, candidates can come in first in a primary
caucus and be seen as the loser.
Somebody who comes in second can be seen as the
big winner.
I I won't go through all the historical
situations where that's the case.
Is that at all in play here in Iowa or
in New Hampshire in terms of
how these candidates have to do?
Or is that really from a bygone era?
It's like when you go to buy a car or
anything,
what's the value of a product,
whether it's a political product like a campaign or a
commercial product?
The value, the price is what someone someone's willing to
pay for it.
And you can talk all you want behind the scenes
or publicly about expectations if you're a campaign spinmeister.
But at the end of the day,
if people don't buy it,
forget about even us, the reporters,
If the voters don't buy it,
then momentum really means nothing.
If you're saying, well, we had a strong third place,
we had a strong second place.
So for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis,
for example, if he's beyond,
let's say, five points behind Trump in Iowa,
it's hard to say he had a great night.
It's just objectively hard to say that.
And for Nikki Haley, who's put a big bet on
New Hampshire if she's trailing
7/10/15 points behind former President Trump in the Granite State,
hard to say. That's going to be something that could
elevate her into her home state of South Carolina would
be intriguing to see.
Does she take the political risk for her own career
if she underperforms in New Hampshire?
To put all of that political capital on the line
in South Carolina?
No one wants to be beat in their home state.
That's right. And then you make the very good point
they have to keep their eyes on a future Republican
Party they may want to compete in and maybe not
cause too much wreckage, is the final question.
Then, Bob, help us lift our eyes above the horizon,
or at least above the horizon of Iowa.
We're in an election year.
What are a couple of things that you're keeping in
mind,
that's in your notebook that maybe we should be keeping
in mind as we look at this year too?
Assume nothing's always my motto as a reporter.
And while it's going to be difficult for DeSantis to
stay in the race,
for Nikki Haley to stay in the race,
if they don't do well in Iowa and in New
Hampshire,
there's still a lot of money on the sidelines for
major Republican donors.
And there could be a moment,
even if these candidates underperform in January,
that some major donors say.
We want you to stay in the race until Super
Tuesday in early March.
So this race could seem over.
But races and campaigns sometimes can go in different swings
and rhythms.
I think about 2012, Rick Santorum had a hot start,
then he faded. Then he kind of came back and
threatened Romney,
Mitt Romney for the Republican nomination.
You never know exactly how this is going to play
out.
And keep an eye on on the Democratic side,
Dean Phillips has so far,
the Minnesota Democrat gotten no attention or traction,
but at the same time,
he's on the ballot in New Hampshire and President Biden
is not.
And does that create any kind of political electricity raising
questions about the incumbent president?
We'll have to see when we will
be with you for all the swings and rhythms to
come.
Robert Costa in Washington. Thanks a lot,
Bob. Thanks, John.