Let's call your attention to the market,
because if you kind of skipped out for a couple
hours because you woke up
930 comes Eastern Time. The market opens,
just goes down. Dow's down
707. You get it. You tune out.
Guess what? Things have really come around.
Not going to say today's a good day,
but Dow's down 314, which at that price point,
it's only 8 tenths of 1%,
halfway off its lows, and in fact 11 Dow stocks
are higher.
Boeing is higher. Even Intel.
That goes to our next guest here in a second
sitting next to me.
Even Intel is higher today.
About half the NASDAQ 100 is also higher by the
way,
led by AstraZeneca, Marvel, the
not the superhero thing, the semiconductor company,
Tesla's higher Keurig, Dr. Pepper.
So was a pretty ugly day late morning,
but buyers have come in.
Not going to say a good day,
but still we are well,
well off our lows. So let's talk about the aforementioned
Intel.
We know it's been a rough year.
Stocks down about 30%. You got earnings out tonight,
stocks higher into the print.
Stacy Rasgon of Bernstein Research lives out on the West
Coast.
He's in the Pacific Time zone.
Never been here for TV at the NYSE.
That's right. So I, I,
I love being the first.
So, Stacy, good to see you.
Thank you for having me.
No, I had nothing to do with it.
Actually. It's the entire production team,
but it's good to see you here.
OK.
Intel. Yes, rough year, but what's the one or two
things you're going to look at the most tonight?
Yeah, so Intel has had a rough year and we
kind of understand why.
And well they tell investors about a rougher they have
it's kind of goes hand in hand.
I mean look, so I will be honest,
I don't exactly know what to do with the stock.
We've mellowed a little bit on it.
We upgraded it last year.
As you know we've been fairly negative for,
for quite a while and look last year I I
mean they just slashed the dividend and gross margins were
starting with a three and it was at book value.
It couldn't get much worse at that point.
It's come up a little bit since then
to be honest. I don't really know what to do
with it though PCs right now are still fairly anemic.
We'll see That looks like into into Q2 servers
maybe at the end of the day,
maybe not getting worse, maybe that's a positive.
But they're all Terra business is going to be pretty
bad.
And you know, they don't really have an AI like
accelerator story that's driving a lot of these other names.
Not getting worse is not what I want to hear.
Brian, how's that rash? Yeah,
getting worse. Yeah, exactly. That's not.
And and to be fair,
you know, they had this Foundry day a couple of
weeks ago and and my biggest take away from that
day was come back in 20-30.
And so like it's it's kind of a no man's
land right now like at six years from now according
to my man.
Exactly. Yeah. And I mean,
they said they'll be break even.
You know, I'm in 27 or 28 and they'll have
some some
better model in 20-30, but that's a long ways away.
And so at this point,
at 35 bucks is in an absolute short.
I don't know, although it's back in funding short territory
for sure,
but it doesn't feel like a long either.
And like I don't exactly know what to do with
it anymore.
Well, here's what's weird is I mean Intel and I'm
not trying to bring politics into it.
Then you got to take a shower.
But let's be clear. They're getting billions from the government,
from taxpayer. Well, sure, there's no government now it's the
taxpayer.
You're getting billions from taxpayers.
Everybody's talking about the CHIPS Act.
They should be. In my view they should be winning.
Like that's well is the home team.
This is the home team.
See after they are getting lots of folks are getting
money but everybody it's not just not just them.
You get a car and you get a car but
remember the problems that they're having they're not solvable by
money.
You don't throw money at these things and and they're
magically fixed
but they we are throwing money at we we Well,
exactly. So that's a whole other conversation we can have
but 70 these are the most complicated things that humanity
has ever devised that that they've ever built and you
don't just throw money at the probably magically get fixed.
They had money. Plenty of money,
right. They could have gotten it.
They they didn't. This stuff is hard,
right? OK. And I know Pat
Gelsinger's talking to John Ford.
Seems like a perfectly nice guy.
Never met him. But if you had to go back
and Intel is one of the most storied.
And by the way, only pair only the paranoid Survived
by Andy Gross.
One of the best business books anybody.
Sully's book of the month Club.
Read that. And it's about from one of the founders
of Intel and and they owned it.
Intel inside. If you had to go back and say
where did they botch it,
yeah, I mean, so the issues that they're having,
but they didn't just develop,
it's been 10 years in the making.
I mean they started having process technology delays like way
back of over over 10 years ago,
14 nanometers their big initiative when when Bob Swan,
the former CEO was the CFO,
his whole thing was we're going to take OpEx down
to
25% of revenue. We're not going to spend and but
the numbers were were excellent back then and they were
generating tons of cash and margins were great and they
had a true monopoly kind of position.
They were comfortable. It was very,
they got Ford Ltd of stocks.
Yeah they they kind of got lazy,
didn't do anything very well and then they fell on
their face and it and it gave AMD and others
a chance to close the gap.
And there's a lot of changes that that that you
know that they missed.
They missed mobile, they missed AI and accelerated compute and
and they're paying for it now.
And when when Pat says it's going to take till
2030,
it shouldn't be surprised. It took 10 years to break
it.
It's going to take 10 years to fix it.
I think it always was
$67 stock. Couple years ago it was a
$67 stock in the year 2000.
Yes, Yes, it was. Well,
we're watching tonight either way.
Good stuff. Stacy Rasca, Don't be a stranger.
Safe travel time anytime, right.
I think Morrison said the West is the best.