Hello and welcome. You have tuned into market for F
Attorney T Now I am Shrushti Sharma.
With me is Shell to Suzanne.
Viewers, this is the show where in the next one
are we going to be highlighting all the counters that
are buzzing as of now either on the back of
the news flow or in the back of the earnings
and earning season is in full flow.
We are getting a lot of earnings and one of
the earnings are also on the bottom of your screen
as well.
We will come over to all of that.
But before that, let's have a look at what the
markets are up to,
the shell of fall that is coming in because since
the start of the day we have seen weakness trickling
in.
But in the last 15 minutes or so,
the weakness has actually been more while for the bank
Nifty which is down about 200 points.
Absolutely. Good afternoon to you Sushi.
And yes if you look at the markets,
definitely weak weakness is creeping in for the benchmark indices.
Right now we are down about
170 points from the days highest point.
When you talk about the Nifty index,
let's take a look at Nifty bank and as you
can see Nifty bank also right now is at the
days lowest point.
So yes, we have seen some weakness actually taken in
or rather we were seeing weak market breadth actually.
And now it is just exactly its kind of
accelerator exaggerated. If you look at Bank Nifty,
it is down about 350 points from the days,
highest point, a lot of names coming in,
a lot of stocks actually in focus on back of
this earnings.
Supreme Industries also come out with his numbers and if
you look at Supreme Industries numbers just to take a
quick look at it,
the profit is coming higher and other profit is declined
by about
1.3% on a year on year basis while revenue is
seen an uptick above
15.8%. You have the EBITDA margin that's coming sharply low
on a year on year basis of EBITDA margin is
coming at around
16.3% versus versus by 18.5%
in the stock right now,
giving up some of its gains as you can see.
And Bank of Maharashtra reporting healthy set of numbers once
again Shristi,
All right, that's the way how the markets are up
to.
So we will also address the numbers that will come
during the show as well.
But before that, let me welcome our team of researchers
as well as a technical expert for today.
On the technical front, we have been joined by Vinay
Rajani
of HDFC Securities as well as on the research side.
Ankita as well as Sehi are joining us.
A very good afternoon to all three of you.
So let's kick start the journey then.
And the first talk that we going to be highlighting
is Zomato because that's counter is in focus after Goldman
Sachs bullish pro Krishnur on this one wherein for Zomato,
Goldman Sachs has actually gone ahead with the target price
of
₹240. They have high from
₹170 earlier maintaining a buy rating.
What they're saying is that the quick commerce implied value
is now larger than the food business and the growth
profile of Blanket is at
53% for FY24 and 27 estimates on a year on
year basis.
Now Blanket is now valued at just
₹109 apiece while the food delivery is a
₹98 apiece. So that's how they are stacking up the
valuations and Zomato continues to improve the profitability and believe
its
IT multiples could further relate and that's why we are
seeing Zomato in focus today and the stock was also
up around 2%
the last time I checked.
All right, that is the matter for you.
That is in focus in today's training session.
Let's talk about Crystal and the reason why Crystal is
in focus because our wholly owned subsidy of Crystal Ratings
has been approved to be a giver environmental,
social and governance that ESG ratings that's what the release
coming in from Crystal stated.
They stated that Sebi has approved Crystal ESG Ratings and
Analytics Limited,
which is an arm of Crystal Ratings as a Category
Category one provider of environmental,
social and governance ratings. Remember in July
2023, Sebi had amended the Credit Rating Agencies Regulation to
to include a chapter on ESG rating providers to ensure
that no entity provides ESG rating unless it is certified
by Sebi. And in September
2023, Crystals board had approved setting up of this step
step down subsidiary to carry out the business of an
ESG rating providers.
And now that particular arm has got the approval form
Sebi and on back of that you can see Crystal,
there's training higher by about 3%,
approximately 2.7% as he speak,
right, That's about Chris. We're moving on then and let's
your focus to Bharat Electronics and winner,
you have been tracking this counter
though of late. We have seen a great move on
Bel, but at this point in time are you still
bullish and any targets to look out for?
Yeah, so thanks for having having on the show.
So definitely the trend of the stock is clearly bullish
today only it has hit an all time high of
241.65 month till date we have seen a rise of
19%.
So it is into continuation.
It is one of the PSU stocks which is there
in the defensive
defense space. So defense stocks have been performing well.
PSU stocks have been performing well and the trend of
the stock is clearly up.
It is above all moving averages and making high tops
hair bottom.
So still though it is not moving that much from
the intraday high it has come down.
But I see a strong support around
2:24 which happens to be the three
recent swing low. So unless and until we see that
stock breaching
224 on the downside, we should continue to hold on
to the long position.
So trend is bullish stop loss,
trailing stop loss in long position should be kept at
2:24.
All right. So that is Bharat Electronics for you,
Ankita. Let's talk about L&T tech.
Nosedive is what the stock is taking in today's training
session earnings to be blamed.
Absolutely. Cheryl Nosedive, the right word for this particular counter.
In fact it was done 9%
in morning and right now trading with cuts of 7%
and holding on to those losses.
And this of course has to be blamed on the
earnings.
You know, this is after the IT firm guided for
100 basis points fall in its FI 25 EBIT margin
as it aims to build capabilities to secure future growth.
This, along with moderate revenue guidance triggered the fall.
Even though the company reported a rather,
you know, positive set of results for the March quarter,
L&T reported a .2% growth in the net profit to
340 crores and slower revenue growth and narrowing of margins.
Its revenue grew 5% to
2537 crore rupees. Along the margin front,
the management has guided for a slightly muted number which
you know in the near term as the company ramps
up the investment in areas are critical for the future.
Couple of brokerage notes that have come out and Obama
has stuck to its whole rating on the stock with
a target price of
₹4970. Morgan Stanley has an underweight cost on L&D Tech
with the Target price of
₹4200, and Antique has downgraded the stock to hold and
also cut the Target price to
₹4500 from ₹5000. So that's the word coming in for
L&D Tech and that stock is down and out 7%.
All right, So that is LNT tech for you that
is in focus in today's training session.
And yes, Shristi, while there is one side you have
LNT tech that is falling,
there's another stock that's buzzing,
isn't it? Well, yes, that's Tech Mahindra and one of
the top gainers in
Nifty 50 today. And let's go to Snehi then to
understand like what actually happened with Tech Mahindra and why
the Street is so much excited.
Well, absolutely 60, a very good set of numbers coming
in from Tech Mahindra.
The consolidated revenue has come in at
12,871 crores versus
13,101 crores, a downtick of almost 2%
sequentially. But this was largely factored in by the Street
even when you look at the consolidated patch.
Now Pat is where all ISO because that has come
in at
661 crores versus 510 crores,
which is up 30% on a sequential basis.
Now even when you take a look at what the
management had to say,
they say that quarter four marks the bottom of performance
on the euro on your basis and
FY25 will be better than
FY24. They are seeing some volatility in discretionary spends.
They say that that may remain high macro and so
that's what they are saying.
This is what the management had to say.
And on the commentary on the back of this commentary
that
FY25 will be better than
FY24 stock is doing pretty well today.
Also couple of brokerage notes that we do have coming
in on this talk today then from Macquarie,
you they have gone ahead and maintained and underperformed with
a target price of
₹930. They appreciate the plans of the company to grow
faster in FY20 7.
You also have Jeffrey Zen on Tech Mandal.
They've maintained underperform rating but they've also gone ahead and
cut the target price to
1065 from 1080. UBS has maintained accelerating cut the target
price from 11 to
₹1150 from 1200. This believe that the plan is ambitious
but they're not sure of the market is ready for
this plan of theirs in FY20 7 and JP Morgan
then they have also maintained underweight but a hike the
target price to 1100 from
1050. So that's largely the round up coming in on
Tech Mandal this time around.
All right, so that is all about Tech Mahindra and
what brokerages have to say.
The stock is among the top gainers on the Nifty.
But Vinay, let's talk about Power Grid and where is
this one headed on the charts.
Yeah, so Power Grid has risen 4%
week till date. So nice movement is there and it
seems to have broken out from the symmetrical triangle pattern
on the weekly chart and it is one of the
PSU stock. And as we all know that NSC PSC
index has hit an all time high by surpassing the
previous swing high.
So along with the small cap index,
NSC PSC index has also hit an all time high.
So this is one of the constituent
of the public sector enterprise index and I feel that
along with the sector strength this can continue.
Its uptrend and symmetrical triangle breakout is all already there.
So I see stock hit a new all time high
which is around
299 just ₹5 away from this level so looks very
strong on the chart and strong support is there around
275 which happens to be the 50 days exponential moving
average for the stock.
So I see a clear cut uptrend for the counter
sector has been doing good.
So keeping a support of
275 in mind one can continue to hold on to
the long positions and once it surpasses the new all
time surpasses the previous all time high to which which
is placed at 299. One can have a strategy of
daily with a trailing stop loss that would be a
best strategy to hold on this particular stock.
So yes, it is into a clear clear cut up
trend and
275 the strong support
right then 275 is a strong support coming in for
that counter.
But moving on then let's shift focus to Glenmark Life
Sciences because you will remember that just yesterday during the
closing phase the numbers came in and Sheryl the stock
actually tanked more than 7%
yesterday, yes, but that's when BofA has come out with
the node after getting into their analyst call as well.
And BofA is sounding pretty bullish on this one where
they maintain their by rating on this particular count and
reaching the target price to
₹940. Though the Q4, we have seen a double digit
decline on to their profit figure on a YY basis.
But BofA is actually saying that the Red Sea disruption
is leading to a soft Q4.
But going ahead, they are expecting a recovery in
FY25 with the drivers in place.
So the margin guidance by the company is cautious and
BofA believes that they are at the higher end,
but they are not changing any target price on this
one.
And hence, we are seeing good recovery on Denmark Life
Sciences around
7 1/2% as of now.
All right, that is Glenmark Life Sciences,
If you look at it today,
totally the opposite move coming in for that particular count
of women.
Let's talk about M&M finance and this one actually hit
a rough patch on back of the fraud detection and
they had to defer the earnings as well.
That's why you can see the sharp correction in the
stock as well if you look at the charts.
But what's your take coming in for M&M finance?
Will the things turn better or do you see some
more hurdles?
Yeah, so right now the trend of M&M finance is
clearly on the bearish side or if we are talking
about the short term charts.
So recent high was at
3:08 and from that level it has
gone down by more than ₹50.
So healthy correction in the good quality stocks we must
say.
But the long term support which I see around
2:53, so 253 is a strong support which is derived
from the hundred week moving average.
So hundred week moving average actually acted as a strong
reversal.
First connection with Vinay on that particular note he was
talking about M&M finance.
But on that note, we slip into a break on
this edition of market Fatapat.
When we come back, we'll talk about more stocks as
well as get his view on M&M finance.
Welcome back. You're watching market Fatapat on ET Now.
And Vinay, while we were slipping into break,
you had your views on M&M finance and
actually
if we have you with us then can we talk
about M&M finance?
All right, let me, OK,
let me, let me try and connect the line with
Vinay then let's talk about Biocon instead.
And that particular counter is soaring away in our trade
today.
If you look at Biocon stock price,
it is now trading higher by about 6%
or so. The news information that we have is that
National Company Tribunal does the NCLT has approved the scheme
of amalgamation of Biofusion Therapeutics with Biocon Pharma.
And on back of that,
most likely the stock is seeing a very good up
move about 6 1/2%
as we speak Shristi. All right drag games on Biocon.
But another stock that is zooming into it today and
that is Zensar Tech.
Ankita, take us through the
fine print of the earnings this time.
Well, absolutely Zensa Tech is soaring away in trade.
In fact it jumped a good 12%
in the morning. You know after the company reported a
robust set of numbers for the March quarter and the
companies
Pat rose 7% to 100 and
₹73,00,00,000 from a year ago period.
Now the revenue was up two point 1%
on a sequential basis at
1200 crore rupees. However, you know if you look at
the companies EBIT margins,
that's a bit of a decline of around 10 basis
points,
but that's was a dampener coming in there.
But if you look at the company's order book that
$281 million from $174 million in the year ago period
and
$167,000,000 in the December quarter and the attrition rate also
fell
19.8% in the March quarter to
10.9% signaling an improved employee retention over successive quarters.
So that's a good set of numbers coming in for
Zensa Tech.
In fact it is trading with gains of 9%
right now.
All right, let's move on then.
Snehi, let's talk about Bajaj Finance,
another one that is sulking in
trade today. Hey
Cheryl. And its interesting to note that this talk is
sulking away in today's trading session despite posting a largely
overall,
you know, overall inline set of numbers.
Nii has come in inline,
PPOP, slight miss, but not much to worry about it.
On the other side, net profit is a slight beat
on what the Street was expecting as well.
But two reasons because of why the stock is sulking
away despite posting numbers that are largely in line with
St.
expectations. The 1st first one is management commentary.
Now management commentary is slightly cautious going ahead.
They say that AUM growth is seen between 26 and
28% for FY25. Remember this is compared to the
34% that they have compared to
FY24. This is slightly lesser.
Return on equity may also drag in
FY25 due to the capital raising that they have done
in quarter three of
FY24. They also see names moderating by 30 to 40
bits over the next two quarters.
Rural NPS also they are seeing declining due to the
embargo that's been put on them by RBI on Insta
ecom cards as well.
And credit cost to rise by
1.75 to rise to 1.75 to
1.85% in FY25 versus 1.63 in quarter four.
So that's another negative coming in
that the company is having on their outlook.
Moving on, let's also take a look at what some
brokerages have to say.
And JP Morgan has maintained an overweight trading with a
price target of
8500. Macquarie has maintained A neutral stance with
8100 as their target. UBS on the other side has
maintained a sell rating on this stock as well with
a target price of
6800. So on the back of cautious management commentary and
especially this bearish note coming by UBS,
the stock is down despite reporting numbers that were largely
in line with expectations.
All right,
moving on then let's shift focus to lower slabs then
and discount is in focus definitely on the back of
the earnings where this time around it was yet again
a missed by the company,
especially the margins been came in around 17 odd percent.
But the good part is that the segmental revenue and
especially their API sales have been really strong this time,
which has seen a jump of 30%
on a YY basis as well as if we talk
about their ARV API revenue,
that has seen a jump of
17% and on a YY as well as on the
sequential basis.
And the cost of management commentary
on the EBITDA margin front that for
FY25 there, they believe that it could be a better
than what they have seen in
FY24 is definitely giving the confidence.
And even the brokerages are bullish where dam capital has
gone ahead and hike the target price to
₹472 from 4:24 earlier. They are saying that the healthy
pickup in the revenues neutralized by the drop in the
gross margins.
The pickup in the revenue is driven by the higher
non ARV as well as the CDMO business which should
lead to sharp EBITDA and profit growth from
FY25 onwards with and capital is positive,
the management commentary is positive and hence you're seeing the
stock is also now in the positive territory holding on
to the gains of almost 2%,
right and that is Loris Labs for you.
But let's hear our what the Founder and the CEO
of the company had to say and exclusive interaction with
us.
We are
continuing to invest in
CDMO space. We believe future
belongs to the companies who focus on
manufacturing especially involving
sustainable technologies like continuous flow chemistry,
bio catalysis, those we are doing very good
FY25. We see good revenues coming from Animal Health to
CDMO.
The all the fair we were supposed to build 4
manufacturing blocks,
two were operational already, the third one will go operational
from June and 4th one we started construction that will
be useful for
manufacturing qualified next year. So
this year we see significant growth and next year
we'll also see a lot of growth because we are
doing
commercial validations, the peak revenues as we indicated earlier.
All right, let's move on then let's talk about Avas
financiers and this particular counter is a focus on back
of his earnings.
If you look at the stock price of Avas,
it is staying higher by above 5%
taking the stock to about a six month high,
but now its given up all of its gains.
The company posted 12% year on your rise in the
consolidated net profit in the quarter gone by and the
loan group stood up
yesterday about 22% in disbursement growth of about
19%. And Jefferies is of the view that both of
these matrixes were very encouraging.
They've raised the target price to about
₹2000 per share for
₹1940 per share, maintaining A bystand
what Jeffrey is saying, they expect the return on equity
to improve to about 16%
by fiscal 2026 from 14%
currently. So ours reporting good set of numbers.
Your Jeffrey is giving a thumbs up.
The stock was staying higher above 5%.
Now the stock was staying higher above
1 1/2%,
right. Moving on then. One of the other IT counters
that are buzzing today is emphasis and sneaky good gains
on emphasis as well.
Take us through what's the news flow here.
Yeah, Shristi, good set of numbers coming in for emphasis
as well.
Their revenue has grown by
2.1% sequentially in terms of constant currency led by the
direct business and the DC DXC business has also bounced
back after a continuous sequential decline.
So good numbers coming over there as well.
The TCV has remained subdued however,
and FI 24 new TCV on the trailing 12 month
basis is at one point.
Point $4 billion which is up 5%
on a year on year basis.
Net profit has come in at 390 crores,
which is up 5 1/2%
sequentially as well. Now later in the day,
we spoke to the management and they say that they
expect
FY25 revenue growth to be better than the industry.
They are cautiously optimistic on growth in
FY25 as well. They are aiming for EBIT margin of
14.6 to 16% in FY25.
They aim to maintain the stable and sustainable margins going
ahead.
Deal pipeline is also looking strong back by large contracts
and the focus will remain on January integrative AI based
transformative projects.
Early signs of TCV to revenue conversion pickup are also
being seen and that's also on the radar going ahead.
So Daddy, this is what the management had to say
and good set of numbers coming in from emphasis stock
up 3 1/2%
almost on the back of these numbers.
All right. Since Nahi was outlining what the management had
to say.
If I hear out what management told us in the
conversation post their earnings on the growth ahead,
our guidance to the to the community is we should
be in the range of
14.6% to 16% on a reported basis,
which on a like to like basis will be
15.7 to 16 point
17.1. And that is compared to the
15.25 to 16.25% range that we had last year which
indicates that we have an awkward bias.
And within this range also our expectation is we should
be you know moving
if not to the top end to the middle,
middle of the range very soon.
We have called for the fact that
FY25 will be a growth year and we do expect
to deliver better than
above market growth. So that really means on a relative
basis,
if the broad, you know,
Nascom growth, you know, ends up being in in low
to bit single digits,
then we should definitely grow faster than that.
All right then, but with this moving on to another
news flow wherein Mukesh Ambani Bank,
Jio Cinema has announced a subscription plan of just
₹29 per month and that is less than a rupee
per day.
Now with the Ambanis ambition to disrupt Indias OTT market,
so how will it impact its competitors and what about
the profitability aspect of this business model?
Let's listen in to Karanthi Rani state
and I think this move is more disruptive for the
global OTT giants because I think they are pricing is
that I have 3 premium versus ₹30 per month.
So I think specifically companies like Netflix,
Amazon, it will be tough for them to take price
hikes because the kind of variety of content Geo is
going to have and post regulatory approvals.
If RL Disney deal does come through,
you might also see Disney content getting bundled into this,
which means that the depth of variety of content
is going to be very huge.
So as of now, I think the depth of depth
and variety of content is not on par with the
global OTT companies as far as English content is concerned.
But once the real Disney deal happens,
the depths will become matchable to whatever the other global
giants are going right now in terms of content variety.
So I think it's quite disruptive for two,
three things. One is the ARPU,
Second is the S4 revenue market growth rate.
I think the growth rates for this market is packed
at about
2530%. You will not see this kind of growth rate
because
you know platforms you know may not be able to
raise output beyond the point.
Third very big point because you can't raise outputs.
This industry is already making losses because of high content
cost.
So most of these platforms you know their plans of
you know getting to break even a profitability gets more
prolonged.
So this is I think a threefold impact as far
as the,
you know this pricing is concerned by Geo cinema.
All right. And on that note,
we slip into a break on this edition of market
for our first stay tuned.
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