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Hey, I'm Kramer. Welcome to Mad Money.
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743 CBZ. Hey, tweet me Jim Kramer.
All we wanted was an all clear sign
and we can thank Fed chief Jay Pal for giving
us one today.
When he spoke, if the Federal Market Committee ended leaving
Fed rates unchanged now,
did he technically say you can go buy stocks now?
Bye bye bye. Bye. Of course not.
He's the Fed chief, but he might have well done
so.
How do I know? Well,
it's really this simple. You can time stamp the words
of the Fed chief at his at his press conference
with the intraday chart of a strong S&P after your
rebound. And you can see where he made some dovish
comments which carried the stock market from deep in the
red to decently positive right then to new heights.
It was so perfectly timed that you had no no
wonder about how we got into that awesome pleasure.
Now has become the bulls friend for the moment,
maybe best friend. Even as we pulled back into the
close down,
ultimately gaining 87 points, S&P dipping up
.34%, NASDAQ decline .33%. Things are very skittish.
But you know what? Lately we've been worried
about persistent inflation in shelter cars,
foodstuffs which might have forced the Fed to actually start
raising rates again,
even as there are also signs of softness.
I call them brown shoots
all over the place. But Fortunate Jay Pal chose to
worry more about the brown shoots than the green trees.
He's betting that inflation will head lower again after a
period where it's kind of stalled going down.
He's not talking about tightening,
He just thinks that inflation will gradually go away on
its own,
making him more of a dove than a hawk.
When asked about stagflation, the worst case scenario for stocks,
he actually made a joke
saying he didn't see the stag or the flation.
That joke Plus Powell said he's going to slow down
the Fed's bond sales.
Something has been pushing longer term interest rates higher because
it creates this new flood of supply,
you know, supply when there's too much,
it means it's got to go to a new level,
drops and then rates go higher.
But when he stopped, he said he's going to pull
back in that.
That's a dovish sign. Of course,
it's not like Powell said he's looking for a summer
rate cut,
but he was Badger repeatedly by the press about whether
the Fed may need to raise rates again.
But you know what? He's too smart.
He never took the bait.
Instead, with a little bit of sparring,
he took the dreaded rate hike scenario off the table
and the market rally.
Now I want to make it clear that I hate
even talking about Fed speech.
That is a language. It's not jargon.
Create Argo, created by all the Fed governors and the
president's reporters and analysts who must just chatter each other
and think it's really funny.
We rallied in part because,
as I just mentioned, the Fed isn't going to dump
its considerable bond work into the markets drive rates up.
But we mostly rallied because many so-called experts in the
Fed had come around the idea that the pet that
pals gotten much more hawkish to play,
which could be a nightmare for stocks because the whole
rally since last fall was based on the idea that
the Fed was done tightening.
Fortunately, these spare, these Fed speakers,
well, they were wrong. Frankly,
these people who try to game the Fed are almost
always going to be wrong.
First they thought we were going to get six rate
cuts,
then they said 3, then they said one.
Then they said zero. And now last week they started
talking about an actual hike.
You know what? Here's what they were each time.
And that's good news for the market.
I think it could get more heated for
the rest of the week as we have to bet
that the Fed was screwed into Friday's employment report even
as I actually don't think that Palestinian because it's a
tightly kept secret. So what wins in this environment?
What's what's the what do you do?
Well, pretty much everything's going to kind of work here.
We can buy health care and drugs because Palestinian economy
is most likely going to get weaker.
Buyers flocked to J&J under a belief that it can
finally put paid the lawsuits over allegations of traces of
asbestos in their talc that plate of state cause ovarian
cancer. This stocks so low that I think you could
go higher still if JJ can reach a comprehensive settlement.
They hear that the players have lost 16 out of
the last 17 cases against J&J,
so I bet you they capitulate.
Buyers flocked to the chemical stocks too.
Then that was because of the used turn around and
Kramer faved at Chapel Trust name DuPont,
which saw almost its entire product line accelerate everything from
water semiconductors.
I can't believe because it's been down and out.
Buyers also reach for the home builders again.
Oh yeah, well, that's what they do when they think
that there might be a rate cut.
Remember my rap on the home builders?
They're winners every time. the Fed speaks stubbishly because that's
what pushes mortgage rates down and makes homes more affordable.
Most important, the buyers like tech.
They specifically like the tech companies that reported great numbers
recently with stocks that have been pushed down for tangential
reasons.
Remember, I always tell you look to buy these in
our general market pulled down like we had first tech
that they love.
Well of course the buyers reach for Amazon,
which reported last night an absolutely tremendous lights out quarter
with strength in Amazon Web Services,
advertising in Amazon International. You absolutely have to love that
Troy Compositors,
Amazon's at the top of the class when it comes
to generative AI.
It's got so much going for that it's almost too
long to list here.
It was a smash hit.
If you get a chance,
read the release, you will be blown away.
2nd is Alphabet. Remember I said that Alphabet,
the parent of Google, has to be brought around any
weakness?
Sure enough, you got big weakness.
Yesterday it was time to pounce.
Alphabet has some amazing properties.
YouTube's doing great. Google Cloud is terrific.
And what a good artificial intelligence platform,
to say nothing of the core search business.
Third is Microsoft. Have you seen this stuff?
This thing is just getting killed
and fall on the level below where it was trading
before that amazing quarter.
I think there's nothing better than owning Microsoft right now
and you got to check that box as my Chapel
trust has beyond tech.
This market likes the banks.
Their stocks have been so strong in the notion that
they'll get eventually get rate cuts,
even as their stocks shouldn't really even need rate cuts.
Confounding. But I'll take it more on what may be
the best bank to buy later in the show.
What's not working?
Some of the semiconductors because AMD produced the weaker than
expected quarter as people who focus on its embedded business
and its gaming business were disappointed,
while those who are concerned about a data center slowdown
were spooked by a low ball boost in their forecast
for generative AI chips.
Now I believe the CEO,
Lisa Sue was simply being conservative,
so I'm not going to sweat this program.
Perhaps people fear that Supermicro,
that's a compadre of AMD,
might have to raise cash if it's largely in line
data.
That's revenues in line of numbers,
freaking out the whole AI infrastructure.
If you're near the end of the of the report,
you'll see it says, hey,
maybe we have to raise money and that's what killed
the stock.
Oh, and there's there's no data center slow down.
None. None that anybody can find.
And yet people keep looking for one.
Which brings me to
NVIDIA.
These days, NVIDIA seems to rally far less often than
it goes down,
doesn't it? Given that every one of its large tech
desk customers desperately needs their chips,
we know that Amazon said it needed them last night.
So did Google, no doubt,
with Oracle. Absolutely meta. They said they're spending forces on
stuff,
but apparently that's not enough.
I think people just believe that anything connected to the
data center should be avoided,
and NVIDIA won't report for a very long time.
So I think they're going to shoot at it.
Shoot at My view, of course,
is to own it, don't trade it.
But I totally understand if people are going to sell
it.
That's what they do. By the way,
later on in the show we talk about Apple.
I'm seeing the same thing.
You want to dodge 1/4?
You want to dodge it be my guess.
I'm never good enough to know when to get in
and get out,
so I'm sticking. Well, I disagree with the Invidia
verdict. Verdict. I know it's severe.
It says dumped the semis and by the users of
their chips.
By the customers instead. You know I've railed again endlessly
against these Fed heads,
those analysts, strategists, and journalists who attempt to interpret everywhere
from the Federal Reserve.
They can all, at all times be more important than
what's happening at any individual company.
The good news is the Federal Way meets 8 *
a year. The bad news is the Friday we get
the employment report,
and that produces a whole other set of comp of
macro commentators who are going to second guess Jay Pal
for what he said.
Even today, 48 hours later
though, this guy should get better jobs.
Here's my view. Tune these people out there all There's
only one person worth listening to in this entire universe
when it comes to the stuff.
And that must be the plain speaking Fed chief himself,
Jay Pal. He's been consistent the whole time.
He raised rates until he feared he can tip us
in recession.
Then he stopped raising rates in the economy,
got hot again. But then interest rates went higher on
their own.
And now we've gotten some brown shoots that are helping
to slow the economy.
So the bottom line is this people.
Pal took all this in and recognized that in these
newfound brown shoots means he doesn't need to raise interest
rates again.
He's consistent and that puts us in a much better
position until we fret about Apple and how China sunk
it.
That's tomorrow's business by the way.
Address later in the in the show tonight and we
get concerned that we have might have strong wage growth
data on Friday's job report which would cause a whole
new group of critics to question pals judgment.
Hence why we reversed in the last half hour of
trading today.
As if once again pal doesn't mean what he says.
Hey, how we go to Gary,
my homestead, PA Gary.
Hey, Mr. Kramer, I am in the House of pain
with
Bristol-Myers over the last couple of months.
Shed some wisdom on me,
please. Love your show, man.
What a terrible address, frankly.
OK, now here's the problem with that.
They told you, they told you when we were JP
Morgan that,
look, we don't have the horses now,
but the dividend is safe.
So I mean, what that was,
was the crowd Clarion call to move out at these
prices.
I still think the Clarion call is on because I
don't see anything in the hopper.
Feels a little like Pfizer to me.
Let's go to Max in Illinois.
Max.
Jimbo, yo. Hey, how's it going?
Not bad. How about you,
partner? I'm good. Hey, so you're always preaching stocks that
are best in class.
And for me, there's none more promising and holy than
Costco.
What say you? I like Costco very much.
Now Costco is what's happening.
We got a new CEO.
We got a new CFO
and they're always going to be people say,
well, you know what, the stock paid,
the dividend, it's over. I think this stock is basing,
world basing later in the show.
But that's what the stock is doing in basing and
that makes me like it.
I think J Pal has realized that these brown shoots
are doing some of the work for him.
And his consistent messaging in the face of endless Fed
speak tells me that I think you should just hang
on to stocks and when we get those pull backs
like we had the other day.
Yes, if you want to buy Google,
you want to buy Amazon.
Look, you want to buy Meta even.
How about that. And Microsoft for certain Jay pal knows
what he's doing.
The people who talk about him don't much more mad
money ahead.
Restaurant stocks have become a tough corner of the market
haven't they reporting a strong quarter.
Could Wing Stop be the winner winner chicken dinner in
the space.
I got this with the CEO then my alma mater
Goldman Sachs recently hit a new all time high.
But could the momentum continue.
I'm going to off the charts find out and Tang
to report a solid quarter last night but saw it
stock got hit in response head scratching.
I'm going to break down the numbers with the CEO
to get a better sense of where the company stands.
So I want you to stay with
Kramer.
Don't miss a second of Mad Money Follow at Jim
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