New week and new tropical trouble.
We've got a new upgrade or a new advisor.
That's it. Not upgrade. The newest advisory is in.
Well, depends on how you look.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Looks like some things have been
upgraded,
so let's dissect that. It's going to
receive the name, most likely Ernesto,
unless there's something that's tricky that surprises us that forms
before.
But don't think so. Looks like Ernesto could have that
name assigned to what's still potential tropical cyclone by tomorrow.
That's the thing. We have tropical storm mornings,
though this is the newest upgrade or update.
San Juan PR has now gone under tropical storm warning,
as has the US and Virgin Islands.
Potential tropical disturbance or Cyclone 5 expected to be that
tropical depression later today or tonight.
And then by Tuesday evening it will be moving in
the direction of Puerto Rico.
Yeah. The other thing that I noticed in the new
advisory was that the the pressure ticked up one Millibar.
So that's weaker. Yeah, basically it's not in the process
of strengthening really right now.
They're still having trouble finding a
center of circulation. There was some pretty strong wind,
though. I think some wind gusts.
The hurricane hunters found that were
of low tropical storm strength,
like up around 35 to
40 mph. But yeah, this is going to be,
these will be the first people that are affected by
the storm.
Leeward Islands over into parts of Puerto Rico.
There's going to be some strengthening that'll be going on
as it moves across the islands.
So Puerto Rico, I'd say watch out,
especially now I know the Leeward Islands,
you guys see a lot of tropical action.
So the idea that we're going to have some kind
of probably a low grade tropical storm moving through,
it's not the end of the world.
It's going to have some impacts.
You've certainly seen worse. But I think it's what happens
after that where it gets a lot more interesting.
It'll be interesting to see where we get that northward
turn
and it does look like it would be maybe just
past Puerto Rico.
But you know, as we continue to fine tune the
forecast and getting the information from the hurricane hunter still
that open wave,
you could see some of the leading thunderstorms making their
way in through the
really the Leeward Islands and portions of the Windward Islands.
Those are the thunderstorms to pay attention to.
That's where going to get some of the heavy rain
with it,
maybe some of the gusty winds
just to the north of Martinique over
Dominica. Did I pronounce that right?
Yes, you did. OK. Thank you.
Thank you, Ari. But this is we're looking at visible
satellite and you can see some of the movement doesn't
look like you're a classic tropical cyclone,
but it is expected to organize more so in the
coming day.
Yeah, this is interesting to look at because you can
see a lot on it,
right? You've got these tops of the thunderstorms.
You can see a lot of overshooting tops.
That's pretty cool to see,
you know, probably 3040 + 1000 feet up in the
air.
But the problem with all those big thunderstorms
is that you can't really see down all the way
to the surface.
Now, if you look between some of these breaks in
the thunderstorms,
you can see the surface clouds.
These are the ones that we're looking for to try
to see which direction they're moving to see if there
is some kind of counterclockwise spin around this thing.
And right now it's just very broad.
This is why they were sending the hurricane hunters in
to see if there's a more,
you know, well put together compact counterclockwise spin in there.
And when you look at the direction of the arrows
guys,
you know, you're not really seeing that compact counterclockwise spin.
No, there is still that broad and no closed circulation.
So we have it and we have also a little
bit of shear with this thing.
So questions of well, it's over some open waters.
What's what's it doing? It's it's been encountering some northeasterly
shear.
It's found a pocket at least where some of the
storms have developed in between some of the stronger shear
that's S here.
And then of course, well,
to the north, which is because of a mid level
low,
there are areas that this thing could organize.
But until we we see that sheer ease,
we're not going to see this strengthen into a hurricane.
And even with this pattern and the wind environment as
it makes its approach to Puerto Rico,
which is arguably something that you know,
could be significant for Puerto Rico,
given the topography, the approach that it's going to have,
how much rain we could see on the island,
maybe upwards of a of a foot.
As that shear eases, this thing strengthens and that's when
the warm sea surface temperatures really take charge.
So there, there will be shear around it,
but it should it should find a pocket by midweek
that allows it to intensify forecast models
consistent that this thing will reach hurricane status.
There have been questions on if it will reach major
as of the latest advisory,
they're still keeping it at a high end tattoo and
I mean borderline,
right. It is interesting when you look at the intensity
models.
Yeah, maybe pushing it into at that point though,
I mean it's just, it's,
it's a small difference at that point and just planning
on maybe a major if not approaching major hurricane heading
in towards at that point it would be heading towards
Bermuda. When you talk about this is the Fox model,
this is one model of many,
but so I I wouldn't hang on too closely to
placement at this point,
but you'll notice that the Fox model by tomorrow night
does have a close low
over Guadalupe, over Dominica and then pivoting off more of
a northwesterly spin over Puerto Rico.
So this has it actually moving over Puerto Rico.
Either way, it's an island that needs to pay attention.
Yeah, and it'll be interesting to see how strong it
is at that point.
I don't think it's completely out of the realm of
possibility that we could have a low end hurricane,
you know, somewhere close to Puerto Rico.
I'd say a higher chance of that happening as it
gets north of the island because that's where the atmosphere
is the most conducive to a lot of the strengthening
that's going to be going on.
But
you know, I know we're focused in on these islands
here because these are the first guys that are going
to be affected by the storm.
But we've got Bermuda down the road,
we've got the East Coast of the United States that
even though it looks pretty likely that the storm will
be well off the East Coast of the United States,
you guys know, if you live along some of those
beach areas,
like if you have a powerful enough storm,
it can be pretty bad.
The beach conditions can get rough.
I was, I'm looking at the details too.
And it's possible that tomorrow we could go from APTC,
the mouthful potential tropical cyclone to a tropical storm.
It might, it might miss that tropical depression phase,
getting it classified as a TD.
You have winds that are less than talking mph here,
less than 39. And then you have to have this
close circulation and,
and we don't have that yet.
And it looks given the,
the intensity forecast, this thing's going to be a potential
tropical cyclone until tomorrow.
And then with winds perhaps at about 40 miles an
hour,
that would give it a,
a tropical storm status. So we would go from APTC
to just Ernesto,
which I guess given what we're dealing with,
why not?