Welcome back to market Feda, Feda and let's keep it
going with all the buzzing counters.
But before that, let me welcome on the technical front
Mr.
Ashish Khayal, who is the founder and CEO of Wave
Strategy Advisor,
who is joining us right now.
Hi, a very good afternoon,
Ashish. And let's talk about your first counter then and
that is Aurobindo Pharma.
Indeed, the pharma is in the pink of health today
but look at the move in Aurobindo Pharma hitting an
all time high.
The numbers were descend. The management commentary was also on
the positive side.
But why such move today and like
is it packed by the volumes as well?
How are you seeing it on the charts?
Yes, the overall trend for
auto pharma has been positive.
We can clearly see that on the charts also.
And the stock is outperforming today when we can see
Nifty is down by nearly 170 points,
the stock is up by more than
3.5%. So the overall trend for the pharma stocks is
positive.
And Oro Pharma is outperforming for quite
many months now.
I can we can expect the trend to continue towards
the level of around
1750 on the upside. And on the downside,
one can maintain a stop loss for the stocks around
1460 levels.
We'll do that. But I just want to take a
quick check at the market.
I know it's too soon,
but too much of a fall has come in,
in the next last 5-10 minutes as well that we're
seeing for the market.
24,170 levels is what the Nifty is at right now.
Yes, a fall of around 7/10 of a percent from
the days has
.186% fall that we're seeing.
And among the top losers that we have in the
Nifty 50 today,
let's pull that up. Shri Ram Finance,
BPCLHDFC Live HDC Bank, among the ones that are seeing
a fall of more than around 2%
in trade. Also in terms of just the last one
that sharper the fall that came in for some of
the stocks that was in Sriram Finance,
that was a fall that came in as well.
Power grid and Nest Face,
slight bit of a pressure on that too.
So yes, keeping an eye out on all these stocks
as of time actually a bit under pressure.
But let's move on and talk about
the next stop that we are highlighting right now and
that is Electra Green Tag.
We have a great set of numbers that was reported
by Electra Green Tag.
The stock was buzzing into and holding on to strong
gains.
Revenue up by 45.3% on a year on year basis.
Profits of the company seeing a growth of around
34%. While in terms of
the operation performance that's been good because EBITDA was up
by
4.4% margin seeing and seeing a slight bit of a
decline there though.
But All in all, decent numbers that came in Electra
Green Tag holding on to gains of almost 9%.
And despite the, you know,
subduedness and marketing weakness and market that we're seeing,
the stock has managed to hold on.
So that's interesting to watch out for that actually.
All right, we're sticking with the earnings.
Then let's have a look at Easy Trip because the
flashes are on the bottom of the screen and seems
like a decent set as we
continue to talk about the travel and tourism theme.
This time Easy Trip has seen a jump of
23% on the overall revenues.
EBITDA has grown by 35%
as well as the profit margin.
EBITDA margin rather has seen a jump of more than
200 basis points and
30.8% is what the company has reported with a net
profit growing by
25% on a YY basis.
So indeed, a good set of numbers coming in from
easy trip this time.
And the stock is also holding on to the gains
of 2%
right now, surely keeping an eye out of that one.
But let's move on. And Ashish Dixon Tech,
there's no stopping this, right?
Because it's just seen this runaway up and away today,
as of now, trading at
₹12,000 approximately per share. What's the word now on Dixon
Tech?
Should anyone even look at booking profits or continue to
hold this?
See Dixon Tech has continued to outperform the broader markets
and IT
stocks. We can see some consolidation happening,
but Dixon looks to be forming a triangle pattern and
there is a possibility that the stock can break out
this pattern and can reach towards the level of around
13,500. On the upside, that's the target for Dixon.
13,500 is what we can expect and on the downside,
one can maintain a stop loss of around 20 days
average,
which is around 11,600 levels.
Alright, then that's about Dixon Technologies.
But with this viewers, as you can see on the
bottom of the screen,
it's in Dalco numbers. We will address that in a
while.
But before that viewers, let's have a look at the
smart meter space,
because all these counters be genius par HP electric canes.
They are all buzzing in trade,
but what's the buzz in the smart meter space?
Share the standing by to decode all of that for
us.
Well yes, smart meter theme stocks are in focus such
as Genius Power,
HPL Electric and even Salzer Electronics.
These stocks have been buzzing in trade in our industry
buzzes that larger state government orders is expected to come
in over the coming months and interestingly,
yesterday Andhra Pradesh government launched a prepaid meters coming in
the government offices.
Apart from the institutional order expectations from the state government,
the smart meter program is expected to enable almost
1.5 lakh crore investment in the prepaid smart meters segment
and overall the target for
2025 is almost to make the smart meters come in
25 crore homes in order to replace them from the
traditional meters.
And there are two players largely involved,
first one being Genius Power and HPL Electric.
Over there, their order books ranges between
3700 crore to 21,500 crore rupees.
But the valuations both the side is on the expensive.
Apart from this, conglomerates such as Tata Power,
Adani Group and GMR also have exposure in the smart
meter via their arms or wholly owned subsidiaries.
Interestingly, the smart meter, the industry size,
as per MOCL, it's ranging between
48,000 to 60,000 crore rupees
and as per National Grid mission statement,
only 1.3 crore households have actually installed the smart meters.
And of course the runway itself is 25 crores and
of course this is coming in for the next two
years.
Also, there are certain risks involved in the smart meter
theme.
The first one being of course the slower execution for
the implementation of the smart meters.
Also higher charges as some corners have reported that the
charging has gone up and that is something to watch
out for.
And of course the elevated valuation which I had actually
pointed out
today itself, we had done our cover segment also where
kinds technology is in focus.
So the cover in the street is that the smart
meter manufacturing facility in Telangana is expected to start their
operation in a month.
Thanks so much for that,
Sharat. Keeping an eye out on that.
But let's quickly mark the flashes at the bottom of
your screen.
Indalco came out with its numbers.
Revenue a slight bit of a miss compared to what
we were expecting.
We were expecting 23,900. It's coming at around
22,155 profits in line with what we were expecting.
So yes, profit has managed to see a growth at
this time of around
4.1% profits at
1470 crores. We're comparing on 1/4 on quarter basis,
keeping an eye on that.
Margins slight below the what we were expecting at 80.
Now
11, 11% approximately is what the,
I think, sorry. Yes, 11.5 was the expectation.
So it's above estimates, sorry.
So yes, EBITA margins above estimates because it's coming at
12.4%. The factors that come into play for Hindalco is
in terms of aluminum prices that have seen a sharp
rise this time.
So yes, because of that,
you know, may be some bit of an improvement there
that what we were watching out for,
but revenue is something that clearly saw a miss this
time and we'll be keeping an eye out on that.
Revenues came in at
22,155, very stable versus, you know,
flattish. We're seeing in terms of a move versus last
quarter.
So keep an eye out on that.
We'll wait out for some bit of a commentary or
anything that comes in later on.
But as of now seems like Hindalco is an inline
set of numbers and if we could just see how
the stock is moving as well.
As of now, the stock is down a percent in
trade,
slight bit of a decline that furthermore has come in
after the numbers were reported.
So yes, that's Hindalco in focus today in line set
of numbers reported from this deputy company Shishi.
All right, that's about Hindalco.
We'll wait by to see some bit of a management
commentary in a short while from now,
but not no significant reaction on the stock price.
But with this, let's get back to all the other
buzzing counters then and let's you focus to Yatra,
another counter which did report its numbers.
And this time it has been lackluster performance by Yatra
because look at the margins that has now seen to
4.5% as well as EBITDA has also seen a decline
of over 70%
on a YY basis. The net profit also saw a
decline of 30%
as well as revenue also were down 8%
on a YY basis. Across all the parameters,
we are seeing Yatra Online not performing well in in
this particular earnings and that's why the stock is also
down by 4%
and no significant recovery from the day's lowest point as
well.
OK, surely that's Yatra Online for you all.
Let's move on to Nahi.
The next stock that you've picked up for us is
Inox Wind.
Why is this in focus?
Well, Vinnie, if you remember,
Inox Wind is a stock that has been doing phenomenally
well for itself over the past couple of trading sessions.
First of all, Inox Wind and Inox Wind Energy both
reported
Stella set of numbers tipping over to the profit side
compared to incurring a net loss this time last year.
So ever since the street has picked that up that
momentum seems to be continuing and even today the stock
is doing pretty well up 6%.
But today it's on the back of an order win.
Now Inox win Limited has announced that it has backed
an order for 51 megawatts from the ever renew energy
Private Limited,
which is a CNI player and this is an equipment
supply order for Inox wins latest three MW win turbine
generators.
Now additionally, Inox WIN will provide post commissioning multi year
operation and maintenance services,
it's stated in a filing and the project will be
executed in Tamil Nadu.
So on the back of this order win,
this rally that INOX WIN is seen in the market
continues and up 6%
is where the stock is.
But well, yes, we also interacted with Devan Jain Ed
at INOX TfL Group.
He believes that the EV chemical business is a multi
billion dollar play
and will be the biggest gorilla in the Inox GBL,
GFL group. Let's go across and listen into a slice
of that conversation and stay tuned for the full episode
as well.
The biggest bet for us now is
GFCL EV where we are setting up
mega battery chemical complex. These are global skill,
very, very complex businesses, very strong moats.
I, I personally believe that's probably going to be larger
than anything else we've done in the group
that's still work in progress,
a lot of action which we've done on the ground
over the past two years.
We've not spoken much about it and I would not,
wouldn't be fair for me to talk too much about
it.
But I think that's going to be the biggest gorilla.
So give me a sense of how the EV business,
EV chemicals, how, how much revenue size can it achieve
in the next 5-7 years.
You started talking a little bit about it at the
management level in the conference calls,
but I want to understand the potential there.
Look, it's going to be a multi billion dollar play
for us
in terms of revenue, in terms of profitability.
I think the group is known to maintain very high
profit margins
from a GFL perspective. Also every time we evaluate businesses,
we're looking at certain numbers below which we don't work.
And you know, I again,
I would not be able to throw too much light
on it,
but I think EV is going to be the biggest
bet.
But I'm told that a lot of global investors started
approaching you
and you know for some pie in that end alone.
And I think the management has indicated that at right
time value and locking or getting strategic partners,
perhaps financial partners or strategic,
which one would you prefer?
Look, I don't think it's strategic partners.
We've got the technology tie UPS in place.
We have a very large R&R and D team both
in India and globally thanks to our fluoropolymer
business experience. It's,
it's, it's, it's not really right to say a financial
partner,
but it's really going to be financial investors
who'll, who'll, who'll probably get a small piece of the
pie.
I mean, as, I mean again,
as we are known to list all our companies eventually,
I, I would assume the eventual goal would be to
list all our larger ventures.
And to that extent,
while we will raise some capital in
EV, so will that business also be carved out and
listed separately at some point in time?
I, I would tend to believe so.
Of course the board of directors needs to decide that.
But obviously the group thinking is that eventually it would
be listed.
All right, then talking about the earnings then just a
while back we did address the numbers for Hindalco,
which were a bit of a mixed,
but the management commentary is seen to be on the
positive side because the management did say that looking ahead,
the major capital formation phase of their downstream business is
near completion and going ahead they will explore growth opportunities
in their upstream business given their strong cash position.
Other than that, some of the operational updates also coming
in from Hindalco where they do say that the aluminium
upstream EBITDA has seen a jump of
81% on a Whyoy basis.
That's industry beat EBITDA margins at
40% as well as that's been an all time high
quarterly copper EBITDA performance as well with a jump of
52% on a Whyoy basis.
So Hindalco mixed set of earnings versus the street estimates
for the management commentary seem to be on the positive
side.
So do watch out for that.
Surely we'll keep an eye out on Hindalco,
but let's move on. On TV's motors on the technical
Dashish,
what's the vote on this one?
TV's motors has been in a very strong uptrend.
We can clearly see within the two Wheeler space,
the stock has outperformed and it has also managed to
break out today,
bucking the trend when the majority of the market is
falling,
the stock is moving up.
Overall relative out performance is what we can see.
The stock can move towards the level of
2800 on the upside and one can maintain a stop
loss of around
2570.
OK, keep an eye out on those levels over there.
Let's move on and talk about Camden Fine Sciences.
That stock is under pressure after its numbers,
we saw a decline in terms of revenue of around
6%.
The company actually went into a loss this time and
reported a loss of 35 crores versus last year it
was a profit of 12 crores.
And in terms of operational performance also,
we are seeing the weakness.
So yes, like other chemical companies,
we're seeing pressure on this one as well.
EBITDA mountains down by around
464 basis point. EBITDA also on a absolute basis is
down by
53%. So yes, keep an eye on this one.
As of now, Cameron fine trading at the day's lowest
point,
5.6% down take for this one.
Right then moving on and less your focus to
IGL and Ashish, how you're tracking this particular stock.
All these city gas distribution companies have been a bit
range bound in the recent while,
but what exactly are you spotting for IGL?
Yes, these companies are in range bound but we can
see IGL formed a very important low at
512 and showed a SMART Recovery from there.
Suppose that it is consolidating in a flat pattern and
the possibility is that it can give a positive breakout
on the upside.
We can expect IGL to move towards the level of
around
565. That can be the target on the upside and
one can maintain a stop loss of around
528 levels.
All right, that's about IGL,
but let's you focus to Tak then one of the
companies that did report its earnings and this time what
we have seen
for the company is a decent set of numbers.
The revenue though it was down about 8%
in trade as well as the net loss is being
reported by the company.
This time the net loss is at 31 crores and
EPITA was also seen to be under pressure.
So not a great set by Tak.
The stock under pressure,
7% decline in terms of revenue,
clearly causing some bit of a pressure there.
Ashish Crompton, that's the next talk that you have picked
out for us.
What's the word on Crompton in terms of a stock
move that we should be expecting?
Right now? Crompton is trading at
₹435 per share. Last six months we have seen a
bit of a move coming in,
52% uptick there.
Are we expecting a further upside?
Yes, it looks like Crompton after a very strong run
up is has been consolidating and the overall trend looks
to be bullish.
On the downside, the support for the stock is around
413 levels from where it bounced back sharply.
There is possibility over short term we can see some
consolidation but it should eventually give a breakout on the
upside towards 470 levels.
So the target for Crompton can be maintained for 470
levels.
All right, that's about Crompton.
But moving on Snehi, let's talk about NASA.
The brokerages are now turning positive on this particular stock.
Tell us more on that front.
Well, yes, absolutely. We have a note from Goldman Sachs
that came in today on Honasa Consumer and they've initiated
a buy rating with a target price of
₹570. They believe that the India beauty transformation creates a
multi year growth opportunity and combined revenue of the five
leading new beauty companies including Honasa and Minimalist grew exponentially
28 times over FI 19 to 23.
They say they see scaling up of the portfolio of
brands under the Derma skin care stable and they also
see growth opportunity as Onasa double S.
It's offline distribution to 400,000 retail outlets or 4,00,000 retail
outlets through FY20 7.
They expect EBITDA margins to increase from
7.1% in FY24 to 10.2 in FY20 7 and further
14% in FY30. So quite the visibility being seen there.
And they're also saying that they see the new brand
scale up and turn profitable as well.
So positive note coming in from
Goldman Sachs on NASA consumer and the stock is up
more than 3% in today's trade.
Surely keeping an eye out on that one and trade.
Let's move on and talk about Siemens India.
That's the one focus as well.
Now six months, Ashish, we've seen a good return right
from from around below that 5000 level today trading almost
near 7000 mark is what Siemens is doing.
Are we expecting the upside or you know maybe a
sub bit of a consolidation is what one could watch
out for?
Yes, Siemens has shown a very smart move on the
upside.
We can clearly see that and recently you can see
on the charts
it has from the double bottom kind of a pattern.
The breakout of the same will come about the level
of
7150. So we can expect a further up from here
in Siemens,
maybe post some consolidation, but the up print can resume
in this talk and we can expect it to reach
towards the level of
7800 on the upside.
All right, moving on, let's ship focus to ONGC.
So the stock becomes very volatile and has a great
correlation with the prices of the crude oil in the
global markets.
But back home, the brokerages are now seen to be
turning bullish on this particular stock because Jeffries did come
out with its note where they do maintain a buy
rating raise the target rise to
₹420.00. What the company is saying
that yesterday we did see an announcement coming in from
ONGC where the company was seen to be
announced that there will be a premium price for the
incremental APM gas product that has been notified.
This would apply a 10%
of their ONGC current gas production rising to 20 to
25% of the contribution in the production in the next
two to three years.
And Jeffrey is also saying that incorporating the new pricing
regime will lead to two to 3%
increase in their FY20 6 and 27 consolidated EPS.
The valuations remain favorable and the stock is trading at
a discount to Nifty and that's the take coming in
of Jeffries on ONGC.
But with the fall in the markets as well as
the kind of run up that we have already seen
in ONGC
yesterday, I believe that the stock is under pressure today
on the back of these factors and down about 2%
in rate right now. We're only keeping an eye out
on that one,
but let's move on and talk about the next talk.
And Ashish, the next talk that you've picked up for
us is Federal Bank.
What is the chart indicating now for Federal Bank and
where should we see it move from here on?
We can clearly see that
there has been some selling pressure today
in the overall banking space when the bank,
if it's down more than 600 points.
But Federal Bank has still managed to be
trading near the prior days close and a little higher
from there.
So the overall tone is
positive for Federal Bank. If we see some kind of
a upside pullback in the broader market,
I think Federal Bank should start outperforming
after touching the 52 weeks high,
and we can expect it to reach towards the level
of
210 on the upside. And one can maintain the stop
loss near the 20 days average,
which is 197 on this stock,
right? That's about Federal Bank once again reclaiming the levels
of
₹200. But moving on to another news flow where the
Ministry of Information and Broadcasting has withdrawn the latest draft
of the Broadcasting Services Regulation Bill and decided to issue
a fresh one after consulting stakeholders.
Summita is here with more details.
Yes. In fact, the government has said that it will
hold further consultations and publish a fresh draft of the
Broadcasting Services Regulation Bill after certain provisions of the previous
draft raised concerns amongst online content creators as it's sought
allegedly sought to club them with OTT or digitally news
broadcasters.
In fact, this draft was not released publicly but the
ministry was understood to have incorporated this provision and hence
there were concerns around free speech and how content creators
should not be clubbed with the digital
with news broadcasters. In fact,
the provisions in the draft bill would have made mandatory
for individual content creators
to appoint a rebound for dressing officer and quantity evaluation
committee once it crossed a certain number of subscribers,
leading to more more focus on them.
And of course, as there were concerns about free speech
as well.
Now, there were also industry stakeholders,
media bodies as well that claimed that digital media organisations
and civil society associations were not consulted on the move
and hence they ask for further consultation.
But the government in a latest tweet has said that
the previous
draft bill and explanatory notes were placed in public domain
in November.
They've also said that the bill is still in draft
on stage and consultation with stakeholders is currently underway.
It is also said that additional time will be given
to stakeholders till October 15th and a fresh draft hence
will be published only after detailed consultations on this bill
are done. Like I said,
the bill seeks to regulate streaming platforms like Netflix,
Amazon Prime and Disney. Hotstar is over the top or
OTT broadcasting services.
So much for that, Samita.
But with that, we're absolutely out of time with this
edition of Market Fatapa.
So thank you so much,
Ashish Nee as well as Osho for joining in with
us.
And it's a goodbye from Srishti,
myself, as well as the team who put the show
together.