I'd like to bring in military analyst Frank Ludwig.
Frank, welcome. We have no immediate comment from Russia here
on
Ukraine's claim to have sunk one of its submarines in
Sevastopol.
But could you tell us what impact this could have
on Russia's naval capabilities in the Black Sea region?
Well, good morning, Claire. Perhaps I can offer a little
bit of context.
The Ukrainians said that they had damaged this submarine last
September,
confirmed by the British who said it had sustained catastrophic
damage.
Took them six months to repair it.
And I think in June it was in the harbour
on initial tests.
Whether it's been sunk this time in harbour or or
alongside,
we don't know. But the the answer to your question
is directly it'd have no impact on the war as
it is since the
submarine, which is a very effective submarine,
very modern Kilo class, it's effectively been taken out of
the line.
We'll see when we get some confirmation from satellite photos
the extent of the damage now.
But it it wasn't in,
it wasn't functioning before and I suspect it won't be
functioning now for quite some time.
And I should say one thing,
it's only role is, is to launch cruise missiles in
Black Sea
now. Ukraine here also having claimed claiming to have damaged
an
S400 air defence system in Crimea.
Can you tell us a little bit more about that?
What kind of air defence are we talking about here?
Well essentially if you can think about the Patriot,
which is a medium to long range,
very effective anti aircraft and anti missile system,
it's very, very similar to that in terms of its
intention and effect.
It's high end. It's the most modern and effective system
that the Russians have widely deployed.
On the other hand though,
they do have hundreds of these launchers and I suspect
what will happen is that whether or not this was
destroyed,
it'll be taken out and replaced very quickly by another
launcher,
just as the Ukrainians do when Patriot or other systems
are damaged or destroyed by by the Russians.
But it has to be said that what it demonstrates
this is that the much vaunted,
impenetrable Russian air defence system is anything but impenetrable.
So in that sense, would you say that this is
more symbolic than having an actual impact on Russia's capabilities?
Yeah, And it's all part of an attritional approach.
It's not the first time the Ukrainians have damaged or
destroyed an S 400 or other many other systems.
The significance of this is that is is the modernity
of the citizen.
Like I said, it's very much like the Patriots.
But on the other hand,
the Russians have hundreds of them,
and they'll simply stick another one into the line.
I'd like to just get an update on the situation
at the front lines.
Frank, despite Ukraine's recent strikes here at Russian forces have
been making gains in the Donetsk region.
How would you assess the current balance of power on
the eastern front?
What factors are contributing to Russia's advances there?
Well, the centre of gravity of this war is manpower.
And again, that word attrition comes in.
So what we're not seeing,
and I don't think what we will see,
are long, long range Russian breakthroughs and ranging behind Ukrainian
lines.
The Russians aren't capable of doing that.
But what they are capable of doing is gradual attrition,
gradual rolling back of the Ukrainians.
There's one area, it's bizarrely,
but nonetheless, it's a significant area called New York at
the moment where there's a lot of fighting going on,
where the Russians are closing a salient,
that's to say surrounding Ukrainian forces,
which I think will come quite significant over the next
week.
That's in the South, not far from Abdivka,
where the Russians are driving at Perkovsk.
And I think we're going to hear a lot more
of that word or that town,
Perkovsk over the next couple of months.
So Russian gains are steady,
significant and the kind of thing you would expect to
see in this positional warfare
that we've been having now over the last year and
a half or so.
Well, thank you so much for that analysis and for
the outlook.
That is a military analyst,
Frank Ledwidge. We appreciate your time as always.
Thank you, Claire.