Hi everybody. Brian Norcross here with your Sunday midday update
on Tropical Storm Debbie.
Unfortunately, Debbie is intensifying and that's going to make the
outer bands that are hitting West Florida stronger and the
indications are that the landfall intensity will be stronger.
Hurricane Hunter is flying out there and examining the storm
with their tail Doppler radar have found that the
negative influences have been driving the dry air into the
system seem to be be relaxing and the system is
trying to wrap up and form an eyewall here on
the satellite. We can see that you can see it's
taking on more of a
comma shape as it's trying to wrap around the side
and fight off the dry air here and that the
hurricane hunters that are flying in there are finding that
that that process is underway.
And one of the ramifications that is the pressure is
dropping like crazy.
It's down to suddenly
992 millibars. So that's a big drop in indication that
the mechanics of the storm are
getting into place to allow it to develop and perhaps
rapidly develop.
So it's a 65 miles an hour now is the
estimate of the top winds in the circulation and the
top winds are on this side over here not reaching
land, although a very strong wind gusts are over the
land areas moving north,
northwest of 13. So it is slowing down,
but it is going to move.
All indications are on up toward the Panhandle and begin
the bend to the right,
but actually slowly slow down before it comes to essentially
a stall sometime after it makes landfall.
OK, so here's the radar right now.
Notice as I'm recording this at 11:30 Eastern Time,
tornado warnings over here in this outer band
and we also have a band.
Now that the sun is out,
we're going to have bands farther out on the East
Coast and it won't be as robust as the ones
on the West Coast,
but individual very strong thunderstorm,
but fast moving cells all the way from the Miami
Fort Lauderdale area on up the
I-95 corridor on the East Coast.
But of course on the West Coast is where the
more intense bands with a let's look at the current
radar right now out of Tampa
Ruskin actually radar there. You see the cells see those
individual cells right there,
this one and this one.
And when they're isolated like that,
that's when you can get the tornado.
So you can even get them out in here.
So we'll just be aware of that.
Although the Tornadoes are are are not terribly strong and
they move with very move so quickly.
They're more like a really intense gust when they come
by.
So the strongest winds are in here,
and then each band out here getting farther out.
Maybe the gusts are not quite as high,
although when you get those tornadoes,
you have very high gusts.
But right now, there's this line that comes from Fort
Myers on inland,
then up to Sarasota, pushing to Saint Petersburg.
And so we put it this into motion here.
You'll be able to see how they're rotating and you
notice they kind of go over the same area over
and over again.
So very heavy rain in the areas where they're falling
because of that perpetual motion.
It's technically called training over that same area.
So This is why we have the tropical storm warnings
in effect for the entire West Coast
of Florida. We can expect winds of tropical storm force
40 mph or higher, some gusts up to 50-60,
maybe
70 mph. That in a very intense cell going by
there.
So this can take out power.
This can cause problems. Don't park your car under a
tree,
for example. Keep it out in the open and let
this thing go on by.
All right. So here is the new forecast cone from
the National Hurricane Center.
The thinking is that by this evening
it will have reached hurricane strength to the northwest of
Tampa.
Now, at this time, the winds are going to be
coming around like this and pushing water
into the the coast here.
Now, the good thing is this is not at high
tide
as we currently see it for this part of the
coast,
but
the tide and the storm surge where you get the
biggest push from the wind.
And when they go inside,
then we're going to get these very high amounts.
And I'll show you those forecasts here in just a
second.
But a hurricane force storm,
but remember it's bigger than this.
So the outer bands are going to be over the
coast over here in the evening hours pushing north and
then we get landfall in the morning.
The estimate now is for this line is nominally 8:00
AM Eastern Time.
So that the question is,
of course, whether it it comes ashore to the left
side of the cone that would put a hurricane in
Tallahassee.
If it was 90 miles an hour at the coast,
maybe it's 80 or 75 mph in Tallahassee,
but that would be very,
very damaging because of the trees there.
And also, construction is not made for hurricanes in Tallahassee.
So everybody is going to be want to thinking,
be thinking about where their safe spot is going to
be.
Also, where are you going to park your car?
The parking in a parking garage at FSU or parking
in a state parking garage or,
or any other place you can find that's not under
a tree and not where debris might blow around and
hit it.
The worst thing is to,
I mean, there are a lot of worse things,
I guess, but the, if you're in in your home
or you're in your apartment,
then you have some kind of damage.
You have to deal with that,
but then you don't have your car for,
for transportation. That's a terrible combination.
Now remember that when the storm,
wherever it comes ashore, let's say it comes ashore there,
the winds are coming like this and the strongest wind
is on the right side.
And remember this is not a small storm.
So we're talking about Perry and Lake City and Live
Oak and down to Gainesville and other locations there in
North Florida for potential of very strong long winds enough
to take down trees and then eventually even over to
Jacksonville.
But by that time, the storm will be weaker,
but still very, very gusty winds leftover with the hurricane.
And then we get into the next phase of the
storm,
which is a completely different phase from the time look
at this.
So this is Monday evening and then this let me
do to the morning
time period. Let me erase that.
So here it is Monday morning,
then here it is Tuesday morning.
So it it's hasn't even gotten to all the way
to Georgia yet.
And then Wednesday morning, Thursday morning,
Friday morning. So this and remember that the the rain
and the wind going to extend out from the storm.
So this is going to be a long duration period
of very gusty,
even though the wind speeds are going to come down
because it's over land and the Hurricane Center is forecasting
it currently to stay mostly over land.
So they're not forecasting re intensification.
But notice they also allow for the possibility of it
coming offshore.
If it came offshore here,
then the winds would be up 50-60,
maybe 70 miles an hour.
And because it could come offshore,
let's say it gets in this area Wednesday morning.
Now your winds are coming like this and that's pushing
storm surge into the coast all along here.
So they're going to have storm surge alerts for there.
And I'll talk about that in just a second.
But the main message is all the way from,
let's say, about the Tampa Bay area,
including Jacksonville, Charleston, Savannah, on up to Wilmington.
This corridor in here back to and including Tallahassee is
where
an extended period of bad weather is going to be.
It's going to clear Tallahassee sooner than all those other
locations,
but that's where the intense rain is going to be.
And obviously the back end of that corridor is going
to clear sooner.
But this is where the system is going to stall
up in here.
And we can see that when we look at the
computer models.
There is no
like obvious one. So the National Hurricane Center takes kind
of an average of all this.
But we look at this,
we even have the H Wharf turns it around and
brings it way back
in the Panhandle. Not saying that can't happen because when
a system stalls,
lots of things that can happen.
And I'll talk about why it's stalling,
but look at the GFS here.
The GFS takes it and brings it back across Georgia
toward Alabama.
The H Mod takes it up here.
So the bottom line is we don't know where the
center of it's going to go,
but we know that there's going to be
a lot of moisture that gets parked there.
And, and we're just going to be aware of lots
and lots and lots of possibilities.
The the main thing is for anybody in the low
country,
if you're in an area that floods,
know where your high ground is.
That's the bottom line message here.
So let's talk about that rain.
This is the current forecast subject to change since we
don't know exactly where the system,
but it's a large system,
so it can move around quite a bit and still
rain in the same place.
Right now the bullseye is Charleston to Savannah
right in there where we're talking about rain amounts more
than two feet,
maybe up to 30 inches in there according to the
forecast.
But a lot of areas in the see the corridor
here,
the red from Tampa on up,
including Savannah and Charleston and then to Wilmington and then
we come back
this way. So that's the corridor of the biggest rain
threat.
And then what happens if it rains up here,
the rain raining upstate, right?
That water all comes down the rivers,
down the creeks to the
Atlantic Ocean. And at the same time the winds are
blowing the
ocean water in. That even builds the water up higher
in the lower elevation.
So extraordinarily dangerous scenario developing
for everywhere from the the Big Bend,
this is this body of water here,
it's called Apalachee Bay. Apalachee Bay into the Big Bend
of Florida,
which is this part here,
the nature coast, it's called
cities like Perry and of course Tallahassee and then off
to Valdosta and
continuing over to the Jacksonville,
Savannah and Charleston. Everybody needs to be on high alert,
know what their backup plan is,
know where a safe spot is
as this storm comes through tomorrow into Tuesday,
Wednesday and Thursday. Here's the tropical storm watch.
The tropical storm conditions are possible here.
They're just because they'll fine tune this as they go.
Notice tropical storm warnings here for South Georgia.
That's but the warnings and watches are based on time.
So right now the expectation is that you could have
winds over 40 miles an hour throughout that corridor there
along the southeast coast.
Now, when we also talked about the possibility of storm
surge there,
Hurricane Center says if the storm were to get somewhere
near the coast and you get winds like this up
to four feet above normal high tide.
So at the high tide times,
up to four feet above normal high tide,
somewhere in that area is the possibility.
All right, then we'll go back and talk about the
landfall
here. You see the hurricane warning.
This means hurricane force winds are possible there.
Notice Tallahassee is not included in that.
There is some confidence that the
Tallahassee will be on the left side of it.
So not the peak winds,
but hurricane force gusts at least in Tallahassee,
which can be very damaging.
But Perry, you folks in Taylor County there are right
in the middle of it.
Notice the hurricane warnings continue well inland.
And then we have the storm surge.
So the storm surge in this part of Florida is
one of the most vulnerable parts of the entire U.S.
Coast. So from southeast of Tallahassee all the way around
up to 10 feet above normal high tide,
farther S down for Cedar Key and a Stein hatchie
and a horseshoe beach and,
and places down the coast just a little bit up
to seven feet above high tide.
So again, I want to repeat what these numbers mean.
It doesn't mean that everywhere in those zones are going
to be that high.
It means that somewhere in those zones,
if it occurs at high tide,
that's how high the water will be,
7 feet above the normal high tide.
If it of course occurs at low tide,
you can take a couple sun places 3 feet off
of that as the peak,
but that's where this is what people would need to
be ready for in case it comes in at high
tide.
And obviously over toward Apalachicola
of the tide up to six feet above high tide.
Being the issue here is the nature of this coast.
It's called the nature coast,
but for a different reason.
The nature of this coast is it's like a catcher
S Mitt.
So it just catches the water there and it just
piles up and it's a very low around that area.
Continuing farther South of the Tampa Bay area.
It's up to four feet.
And already we were seeing some water rise in Tampa
Bay even with the winds offshore.
But as the winds come around here,
so they're blowing onshore at high tide,
potential for up to four feet in some parts of
the Tampa Bay area down to Fort Myers,
that whole zone exactly where the angle of the wind
is going to be to make the water the highest.
But be ready and know what you'll do if the
tide is suddenly up to four feet.
So most areas won't see that obviously because the angles
aren't just right in the high tide cycle doesn't jibe
with that,
but that's what everybody needs to be ready for.
OK, so here's what's going on in the weather pattern
that's causing this headache.
So here we are tomorrow morning,
system is near landfall down here.
We have a dip in the jet stream that's pulling
it N kind of tugging it north in this gap
between the Bermuda high and the big heat Dome high
out of the West. So here comes the system to
the north and somehow gets up there OK,
then we go forward in time and what happens is
this dip in the jet stream moves out and
it loses its grip, so to speak.
So the system doesn't move very much by Tuesday morning
and we move forward in time.
Then the question is it offshore?
Is it up here? Whatever.
But the the thing that's tugging it is missing and
this high here is coming along and it actually kind
of bows out like that.
And so that just slows down the progression and it
sits in here and that's why some of the models
push it back.
It's because of the of this high building to the
north and pushing back this way.
Other models say no, it's just going to trap it
in there because it's not going to have anything to
pull it out.
It's between those two highs.
So that's why you see that diversity.
It's got to do with how far this high builds
back in here.
But that's Wednesday and then the low completely moves out
and then we have kind of a balance and it's
sitting here around Thursday and then we'll just have to
see what happens. The the thinking is that eventually this
high will come in here and another dip will come
in the jet stream and that will eventually take the
thing out and offshore. But looks like it's going to
take a good part of the week
for that's going to happen.
So let me remind you that we're on Fox Weather
and we're on day and night.
Mike Seidel is covering it from the heart of that
storm surge zone up there in Steinhatchie,
just north of the Tampa Bay area.
If you don't know how to get Fox Weather,
there's your QR code and there's your address,
foxweather.tv, and that'll tell you.
You can get it online on your computer or on
your phone.
It's a free weather channel.
I'm there. And of course,
we're covering this storm until it's over,
which unfortunately is going to take us
looks like here a few to several days before we
know exactly what the outcome is with this storm.
All right, have a good to Sunday.
If you're in the threat zone,
be sure you know where your safe spot is.
And I'll have another update for you
here with the 5:00 advisory late this afternoon.
All right, have a good day.