There are at least three forces going on.
One is the carry trade actually got caught.
The other one is the fact that we're in a
technical correction on the US side.
And then the third one is a question of whether
AI has actually maturized in terms of driving revenues.
And all three are happening at the same time.
And so you have to really look at which companies
are really making money and AI,
and that's really what's going to be important.
So NVIDIA has the chips,
but are they overvalued and are late delivering late?
Microsoft has the apps, Meta has open models,
Adobe's actually making money on AI,
Oracle has AI apps and cloud,
Apple has Apple intelligence. That's going to be reflected in
quarters to come.
And of course, you see companies like Uber actually having
algorithms that are actually helping them optimize on revenue as
well as cost per transactions.
Now you mentioned AI, and I just want to dig
in a little bit deeper because I had a conversation
with Asus tech,
of course. So this is the PC maker.
And on the back of their earnings,
which quadrupled for the second quarter,
the company in their response to the AI shakeout,
given the questions over all the investments that we're putting
in
and we're waiting to see of course of the fruits
that of the all the investments.
Now they say PC shipments are going to be growing
about 15 to 20%
quarter on quarter in the third quarter,
but the AIPC transition will take some time.
So do you, do you think that,
you know, this unsureness that we're,
we have in AI, it's going to linger for a
couple of years until we actually see this full take
on of
AIPC's, what he says till
2026?
He's absolutely right. What we're going to see is at
least four to six quarters before the 8
the AIPC's take hold. But we are in a refresh
cycle for the
PC's and that's going to be important.
These AIPC's are able to do a lot more than
existing PCs.
And I think what's been launched by Microsoft on with
its partners like Asus,
it's definitely seeing a lot of consumer demand.
And so the first Test is going to be what
we see after Q4 in the holiday season and of
course in the refresh cycles for these large PC contracts
that every manufacturer has.
What about the refresh cycle for Apple?
Of course, everybody's looking to September and the Apple intelligence.
This is really make or break for Apple.
And we saw Warren Buffett sell nearly half of his
stake in the company.
So for Apple, actually you're going to see this occur
over the next two to four quarters as they make
Apple intelligence embedded in everywhere in the iOS and the
next version of iOS. And we're going to see this,
you know, you're seeing some delays in terms of some
of the features,
but the main point is really the refresh cycle for
iPhones is huge.
We got the first half on the 5G.
We're getting the second-half of the refresh cycle
on AI. And that's what's that's what's being forecasted out
in terms of what their ability to deliver on the
hardware side of the house.
But it's the services side that continues to say to
them,
especially with the growth and services and of course,
the ad business that they have in the back end.
A judge has determined that Google has broken the law,
abusing its monopoly position in the market.
But you're saying that the judge is outdated.
Can you explain?
Yeah. So here's the deal.
So the judge is basically saying Google's really good at
search,
but he's also saying that this,
the Antitrust act, was violated because of an exclusive deal
with Apple.
So here's the deal. The golden standard is where consumers
harmed,
and consumers would be harmed by being forced by forcing
someone to use Microsoft Bing because Bing search is not
as good as Google search.
And so there's a solution here,
which is to actually give consumers choice.
And whenever Apple has someone using Google versus DuckDuckGo versus
Bing,
they would then get the appropriate payment based on what
the consumer chooses.
So that's an easy remedy there.
But with AI coming, search is going to completely change.
And so it really shows how little this judge understands
how antitrust law works.