All right, happy Friday to you.
I'm FOX 26 meteorologist Ramisha Shade.
It's time to track the tropics and find out what's
going on.
And if you have anything to worry about, if you're
trying to get outside and enjoy your weekend across Houston,
surrounding areas, maybe you're somewhere else and you just want
to know what's happening across the Atlantic basin.
Well, I'm here to tell you.
So let's go ahead and get started.
Of course, we started this season off pretty fast and
furious.
We had some fairly significant systems, the most significant being
a barrel, which at one point was a Category 5
hurricane, a monstrous, catastrophic hurricane.
Of course, that did hit the Houston area in a
weakened state, but still did a lot of wind damage
and caused a lot of flooding over a foot of
rain for parts of the Houston area back on July
8th.
Of course, we had Debbie and Ernesto that were hurricanes
as well.
We had Alberto and Chris, which are tropical storms, but
the last three to 3 1/2 weeks we haven't really
had much as far as name storms are concerned.
Ernesto developed on August 12th, kind of fizzled out on
August 20th, and since then we have not had a
single name storm across the Atlantic, the Caribbean or the
Gulf of Mexico.
The next couple of names on the list would be
Francine and Gordon.
However, we don't have a super high chance at this
point of but those names being needed.
The reason why it's been a little quiet in recent
weeks, well, it's a combination of things.
We've had really too much easterly wind shear in the
Eastern Atlantic that kind of helps to weaken these systems.
So the atmospheric conditions not the most favorable.
Also we've had some late season Saharan dust.
We expect a lot of thick Saharan dust during the
earlier part of hurricane season.
But of course, September is generally the peak of hurricane
season and we still have some of that that Heron
does hanging out and kind of rolling off of that
western African coast.
So that's been kind of hindering tropical storm formation.
Also, these disturbances coming off of Africa have been tracking
a bit more to the north, tapping into more that
cooler water, and that kind of helps to keep them
at a weakened state instead of developing a little bit
farther S like they normally do in that warmer water.
Finally, the warmer temperatures in the upper atmosphere kind of
been keeping things a little more stable.
So that has been kind of hindering tropical cyclone formation.
So here's what we have out there for the moment.
We do have the potential for some tropical development.
We've got 4 systems that we're monitoring, but two of
them are down to a 0% shot for development.
The first system, the one that's been hanging out just
offshore of the Houston area and the Galveston area.
That one now down to a 0% chance for tropical
cyclone development system #2 which is pushing over the Yucatan
Peninsula right now, projected to tracking to the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico this weekend into early next week.
That one is up to a 40% shot for development.
That's a medium chance, but still not looking like it's
going to blow up into a big time tropical storm
or hurricane.
Invest #3 that's the one out here still in the
East Central Atlantic.
That one is projected to push W closer to the
Lesser Antilles over the next seven days.
But that one now down to a 10% chance that
it could turn into a tropical depression, tropical storm or
hurricane.
And finally, that system that we've been monitoring that's been
a couple 100 miles away from the Carolina coast continues
to push away from the US.
And it is a fairly impressive system with some stronger
wind.
But it is not a tropical system.
And it does not appear that it will have time
to gain those tropical or subtropical characteristics before it pushes
into that cooler water this weekend.
So now invest #4 down to a 0% shot for
development as we go into the next few days and
the next seven days.
So here's a look at that system, that weak area
of low pressure just off of the Texas and Louisiana
Gulf Coast.
It has been fairly disorganized, but whether it developed or
not, we knew it was going to continue to spread
a lot of moisture to a big chunk of the
Gulf Coast.
Here in Houston.
We've been getting in on some of those heavy downpours,
especially down around the coast.
It actually developed right along a weak frontal boundary that
is just been hanging out in the Gulf Coast area
for the last several days.
So when this broad area of low pressure just sits
over that super warm water of the Gulf of Mexico,
there's always a low chance there could end up being
a tropical system develop.
But it doesn't look like that to happen this time
around because that chance is now down to 0%.
However, it has been kind of a dreary, cloudy, soggy
week and that will continue through the rest of today,
but things will get brighter for the weekend.
So that flash flood risk is a little bit lower
than it has been the last few days at one
out of four slight or marginal rather risk for flash
flooding.
But we are going to have at least a slim
shot for a few additional heavy downpours that could lead
to a few flooded streets stretching from Houston down to
League City all the way down to Galveston, Angleton and
Lake Jackson.
What do we have out there right now?
Well, our Fox red radar showing still that spotty rainfall
rolling in, kind of rotating around that area of low
pressure.
You can see it pushing in from the northeast, tracking
to the southwest.
So we are still going to have to deal with
some periods of rain across the Houston area.
You can see some of those yellows and oranges indicating
those pockets.
Heavier rain.
This is going to be up around Cleveland, Roman Forest,
getting into parts of spring, over between Cyprus and Katy.
If you're going to be traveling along Interstate 10 from
Houston to Katy off to the West, you will likely
run into some heavier showers over the next hour.
Houston, just some light rainfall going on at Tascocita.
You're getting in on some showers and this activity likely
continues off and on through this evening.
Let's hop down to the coast and we've still got
some spotty light to moderate rain near Angleton and Danbury,
West of Lake Jackson and up towards Galveston.
We got a heavy downpour just to the north of
the Galveston area, so we'll continue with this potential for
these heavy downpours at least through this evening.
But things are going to be changing and it's all
due to the fact that we finally have a cold
front heading our way.
So that front will swing through and that will allow
drier air to build in.
Right on time.
Just as time for your weekend outdoor plans, maybe you're
going to go to a concert in the park.
I think there's a concert series going on in The
Woodlands this weekend.
We've got a lot of action going on outside in
Houston.
We've got, of course, Galveston Beach, just a lot of
different parks have things going on.
Maybe you're doing something in your own backyard.
So I think the weather is going to cooperate and
be sensational for all of that.
That cold front will bring in much drier air.
So all these thick pesky clouds have been dealing with
for much of the week.
And all of the rounds of rain will push away
out into the Gulf as that much drier air filters
in.
So that for us will mean pleasant temps and lower
humidity, some comfortable mornings, especially Sunday night into Monday and
Monday night into Tuesday, Those temperatures likely hanging out in
the 60s for the early morning hours.
So I think we keep things dry for Saturday, Sunday
and even into Monday, but then we're going to see
that moisture start to creep back in next week Tuesday,
Wednesday and Thursday.
And yes, we'll return back to that soggy weather pattern
here in the Houston area.
So we'll be watching that closely, but at least the
weekend is going to be nice.
And also like I said, that disturbance just off of
the Houston Galveston coast will not turn into a tropical
system.
However, we are monitoring another disturbance that I mentioned earlier
that is rolling right over the Yucatan Peninsula.
This one out of all four has the highest chance
to become a tropical depression or tropical storm.
Models still keep it fairly disorganized, but that chance for
development has increased to 40%.
Now that is a medium chance over the next 7
days.
And notice that the area of concern system is rolling
over the Yucatan Peninsula now, but it is projected to
likely develop more in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this
weekend into next week.
And notice where that development will likely occur very close
to Mexico or maybe all the way up to parts
of South Texas just offshore.
So we'll have to monitor that whole area highlighted in
orange because there is a chance now a medium 40%
chance that we could have a tropical depression or maybe
our next name storm.
If that were to happen over the next week, the
name would be Francine.
But with that front pushing South this weekend into early
next week, it would likely keep this system two hours
South.
It would likely roll into Mexico or maybe southern part
to Texas.
But I don't expect it to head our way at
the moment.
All right.
As far as additional development, like I said earlier, that
Saharan dust has been kind of one of the things
that's been hindering big time development across the Atlantic basin.
But notice over the next several days more of that
dust trying to make its way off of the Western
African coast and spread West.
So that will bring in that drier air and kind
of continue to hinder this tropical development.
But if we're able to get some of these systems
going maybe where we don't have as much dust out
there, they could quickly develop.
We've still got super warm water temps out there as
you can see temperatures close to 90 for much of
the Gulf, temps in the low to middle 80s for
parts of the western Atlantic and even down into the
Caribbean Sea.
It is still on the toasty side as far as
those sea surface temps are concerned.
So right now, it does not appear that we're under
any type of big threat from a tropical storm or
hurricane for the Houston area.
However, we are getting very close to the peak of
hurricane season, which is September 10th, less than a week
away.
So of course, this time of the year you always
need to make sure you are prepared.
And of course, when things are quiet, that's the best
time to review your preparedness or your plan of action
in case we were to have a hurricane head our
way.
Make sure you know your evacuation routes.
Make sure you have your insurance papers ready to go.
Make sure you have your hurricane, hurricane gear, your supplies
that you might need in case a hurricane would head
our way.
Good news though, nothing imminent threatening our area right now.
However, we've still got the rest of September, October, and
all of November to get through before we can give
you the all clear.
So just make sure you keep an eye on it.
Of course, we'll continue to do these updates daily as
long as we are in the hurricane season, which does
not end until November 30th.
Hey, this year's flying by hurricane season will be over
before you know it, but until it ends, make sure
that you keep a close eye on things and keep
checking back here.
Of course, you can check us out on our FOX
26 weather app, Fox local.
You can watch our newscast on FOX 26 Houston.
Plenty of ways to get your alerts and to get
your updates, but make sure you check out one of
those and enjoy the weekend.
It is definitely going to be a beautiful one across
the Houston area.
Once again, I'm FOX 26 meteorologist Ramisha Shade.
Have a great of your day.