If you are on a barrier island or anywhere near
that level A near the coastline, you will not survive
this storm surge and it is imperative that you evacuate
to do what you need to do to execute this
plan.
You have time today, but do it.
But time is going to start running out.
There's no need to stay in your house, especially now
that the damage has been done once with the largest
evacuation that we have seen most likely since 2017, Hurricane
Irma.
Just a sampling of some of the voices, state leaders
from Florida, and they're not mincing words, right?
There's just no way around it.
This is a very dangerous threat that's going to be
coming in out of the Gulf of Mexico.
You talk about devastation that could come from Milton.
It could be some of the worst we've seen in
recent history in Florida.
And we just got out of Helene.
So the message is very clear.
If you're an evacuation zone and you're told to evacuate,
get out.
Yeah, it's no doubt about that.
If you have been following along with Milton and the
journey Category 5 status, it was achieved yesterday.
It has gone through an Iowa replacement cycle this morning
overnight.
And we have now seen it a little weaker.
But the forecast still calls for this thing to grow.
It is a powerful Category 4 hurricane right now.
The latest advisory that we got in from the Hurricane
Center does does now have some areas on the east
side of the peninsula, Marissa under hurricane warnings and storm
surge warnings.
Milton expected to make landfall as a major hurricane Wednesday
evening into Thursday cut across the peninsula, taking with it
those hurricane force winds and bringing the storm surge threat
as we head in towards Thursday and Friday for areas
in Northeast Florida, Georgia and South Carolina on the southern
end.
But you talk about the here and now and what
we know.
You know, it's interesting you talk about Milton weakening a
little as it went through the eyewall replacement weakening to
a category 4.
So it's not like it's not like it's a weaker
hurricane.
It's it's still quite strong and powerful.
And at the end of the day, it's not going
to make a difference in terms of what we see,
particularly when it comes to the surge threat that we're
looking at along the coast.
Those winds 145 mph and pushing off to the east
NE pressure is up a little bit as the storm
expands, it's easier for a smaller, which in in all
ways when we were looking at this thing, a very
small hurricane.
But now as this thing has begun to expand some
that pressure, it'll take a while for the pressure to
get deeper now that it's a bigger storm and and
with it remaining a category 4 briefly, maybe achieving that
CAT5 status by later this afternoon.
We're not showing you that time stamp, but sometime around
later this afternoon, Hurricane Center still calling for it to
become a cat 560 mile an hour winds.
And then by tomorrow morning we'll see that weakening phase.
Let's hope that the environment as this thing moves a
little closer to the Gulf Coast of Florida is not
conducive for a strong storm, but still calling for a
high end Cat 3 at landfall overnight.
And that the exact area of landfall is likely not
going to be something we know to maybe even hours
ahead of time.
And that's why they want everybody to evacuate.
You have millions of people within these evacuation zones.
You have the hurricane warnings that stretch from Tampa and
Sarasota all the way over to Orlando, Daytona Beach.
This is a wide area of hazards and expectations as
we head in through Wednesday and Thursday.
You know, we talked about Helene, let's talk about it
again because Helene brought impactful storm surge when it hit
Florida about two weeks ago almost to the date.
Milton is expected to follow in its footsteps and the
impact will likely be even more devastating.
In particular places like Tampa, it was already record-breaking as
they bring in meteorologist Craig Herrera.
Helene was well offshore, Craig, but still, because it was
so massive, again, every hurricane is going to be different.
Every cyclone has different characteristics.
But when you talk about Tampa and the storm surge
it had, that was record-breaking.
And now we're saying it could be worse.
Yeah, almost.
Maybe even double that, Right.
And we were talking about this since yesterday, Marissa, this
being the most aggressive storm surge forecast for Tampa, 10
to 15 feet.
And on the heels of what we just saw, and
you think about all the debris that's still out there,
here's a look at the storm surge forecast.
Again, Tampa up to 15 feet.
You think about Tampa Bay itself, it's only about 12
feet deep, except where they've drudged for the shipping for
the ships to go through.
But this could be higher than the Bay is deep.
It's just think about that, right?
Let's talk about storm surge.
So a lot of the storm surge, basically it's the
Gulf taking over the land.
It's like your community becomes part of the Gulf.
In this case, all of that water comes in the
drag on the winds just continues to push that in.
It's that constant onshore push and the angle that the
storm is approaching almost perpendicular to the coastline.
Plus you've got a shallow Costa Continental shelf here, which
also helps to push more in the way of water.
Water can easily rise 10 to 30 feet or so,
and this is a major concern.
You get a couple of inches of water and then
suddenly it just goes right up pretty high, 15 feet
or so.
Think about that basketball hoop in your backyard, your neighbor's
backyard.
You're shooting hoops and some of that water is going
to be just as high as that basketball goal, higher
than a roof in some cases of a one story
building.
So when we think about this, let's talk about the
consistent onshore push.
Even if this thing does come ashore as a category
3 storm, don't let that let your guard down.
All of the energy is moving forward.
Think about you're sitting in a car, right?
And then you're headed to something.
You hit the brakes and all of a sudden the
car stops or slows down, but your body still keeps
moving forward.
The momentum is still moving forward.
And all of that momentum continues to push up along
the coast with that consistent onshore push depends on where
this makes landfall, we'll have huge implications.
Now, Tampa, take a look at this when we talk
about storm surge up to 15 feet.
If the storm gets very, very close to this area
here, the storm surge could also increase for places like
Fort Myers if it goes farther S because at this
point you're having more of an offshore wind, which is
going to help to push the water away from the
coast as opposed to to the coast.
And if we see it go farther South and that's
going to be a concern for places like Fort Myers
to the north there.
Here's what we've got with more in the way of
the consistent onshore push, which could last for hours.
And when you think about that, I remember Michael Estimate
covering the storm Helene from Tampa, he talked to some
neighbors and he was told that the surge lasted for
several hours.
Let's not forget, even if it does lose some of
its strength, as we said, Rita back in 2005 also
lost some of its energy, becoming a Category 5 and
making landfall as a Category 3.
Rita very similar, just a little bit stronger in intensity
to Hurricane Milton.
And look at the storm surge it created up to
15 feet.
That's why it is important, Marissa, for people to say,
oh, it's gone from A5 to a three, especially with
all the talk out there about the four and the
five right now, that even if it comes ashore as
a three, the energy, the momentum coming forward is still
going to give us that solid onshore push and that
big storm surge.
Yeah, I think, I think so often we assign intensity
and dangers to that category.
But when it comes to surge, it's not related to
that category four or five status that we could see.
It's related to what it's done already.
And that water needs somewhere to go, right Bowl in
the Gulf of Mexico.
So think about the rain coming down too, trying to
make an exit, right.
And that will enhance the flood threat.
That's a really good point.
That's going to enhance the flood threat.
And with storm surge, you could also get some very
rough, intense waves making it even higher.
There are so many hazards and this could be unsurvivable
for areas that see the worst of it.
So Craig, thank you.
You got him for breaking all that down.
And it's always helpful, I think, to look at history
and and things that we've seen based on fire.
So truth.