What is the economic issue that causes this race to
break in One Direction or the other?
Each campaign is rolling out different ideas on the daily.
Today, Kamala Harris unveiling a new plan to cover in
home healthcare for seniors.
What captures the attention of undecided voters in Pennsylvania?
Yeah.
So first of all, thanks for having me, Joe.
I don't think it's a single issue.
Probably it's not one of the giveaways that Kamala Harris
is promising or for that matter, some of the pandering
that Donald Trump has done.
I think the economic issue is a sort of broad
gut check.
Do you feel like you're better off than you were
several years ago, personally?
Is your family finances in better shape or not?
Do you feel like you've got security in your job?
And if you were to lose it, would it be
pretty easy to get a comparable one or would it
be really hard?
And prices, you know, that has been a huge, huge
factor, right?
The huge, huge inflation that we've experienced where wages have
not kept up.
Now recently, of course, price increases have moderated considerably, but
as you know, prices don't go back down typically.
And so people still are not accustomed to the sticker
shock they get at the the supermarket.
So I think it's the kind of the cumulative weight
of all of these factors and whether or not people
feel like we're heading on the right track.
Well, if we consider tracks here, Sir, the data on
the economy and voter feeling about it has been tracking
more in favor of Kamala Harris, at least relative to
how Joe Biden was doing on some of these metrics.
Which does make me wonder if it's still the best
line of attack that Republicans can use against not just
her, but Democrats by and large, if we are seeing
sentiment around the economy starting to change, if even if
with somewhat of a lagged effect.
Yeah, look, I think it is a somewhat less salient
point, but still nevertheless quite salient.
And look, there's been good economic data recently, right?
I mean, in the rate of inflation, the rate of
price increases has certainly moderated.
The stock market's had an amazing rally and hit record
highs.
And, you know, a lot of people have investments if
it's through an IRA or 401K, so that that matters
to them.
We saw very strong jobs number come out just last
week.
So there has been some data.
I'm not shocked that that has, you know, filtered its
way to people's sense about the strength of the economy.
Having said that, I think people remember that prior to
the pandemic, we had the best economy of my adult
lifetime.
And very recently we had a really rough patch.
So things have certainly gotten better for Kamala Harris and
they were for Biden, but I think it's still advantage
Republican.
I want to get granular with you for a moment
if I can.
Senator, 4 weeks from tonight, we're going to be looking
at the map of Pennsylvania, trying to figure out what
in the world is happening here.
And I spoke yesterday with your former Carly Charlie Dent,
former Republican congressman from Pennsylvania.
He's now senior advisor at a group called Our Republican
Legacy.
He shared which counties he thinks will decide this state,
which he thinks will decide the nation.
Let's listen.
The two counties to watch in Pennsylvania are Northampton County,
my old district that is the ultimate bellwether county in
the state and perhaps the nation, and Erie County.
Those are the two counties, and I don't, I'm not
big on predictions, but I will say this, I will
predict this.
Whichever candidate wins Northampton in the Erie counties will likely
win the president, will win Pennsylvania and will win the
presidency.
Take us to school, Senator.
What are you watching on election night?
Look, look, Charlie makes a good point.
And if if you, if you made me come up
with a list, Northampton County and Erie County, one in
the eastern part of the state, one in the northwest
corner, those those would be on my list.
But here's the thing to remember.
Within a state, the counties don't have an Electoral College,
right?
It's not a not a binary switch as to whether
you've won or lost.
And so sure, if you're winning in Northampton and Erie
County, you're probably doing pretty well.
You're probably doing well in the really big counties, too.
You can't take your eye off a big county like
Bucks County or or even Delaware County in the southeast
or Allegheny County in the West, where you have the
potential for big swings.
And the population of those counties are so big that
even if, say, a Republican doesn't carry a Bucks County,
if he does considerably better than a Republican typically does,
that can be enough to win the state too.
So I I would agree Northampton and Erie counties often
are bellwethers.
But look at look at all the big suburban counties
around the state.
There's a handful of them and they're just so many
swing voters that they determine the outcome well.
So many voters, so many votes to count and potentially
a lot of time until we know what that sum
total is of all of those different votes, Sir, especially
in a state like Pennsylvania, which doesn't allow the counting
of ballots that were mailed in until the morning of
Election Day.
We've been trying to prepare financial markets for not just
the kind of policy they could expect under these two
different potential presidents, but frankly, how long it is going
to take to figure out who is going to be
the president of the United States?
How long do you expect it will, it will take
for us to know who actually won Pennsylvania?
It could be a while.
It really could.
And I, I, I agree with what I, where I
think you're going with the idea on the mail in
ballots.
You know, it's one thing to not tabulate the results
of mail in ballots in advance, but there's a process
that this requires.
It requires physically opening an envelope, removing it, removing the
ballot from the envelope, verifying the accuracy of the way
that was filled out, inserting it into a machine so
that it gets scanned.
You could do all of that in advance and still
not push the button that tabulates the results.
And our legislature should pass legislation that would require that
to happen, as many states do.
And then on election night, you'd be counting the ballots
as they're coming, and you'd be counting the ballots cast
on Election Day, and you'd simply push a button in
each of the counties to get the other results from
the mail in ballots.
That's the way we should do it.
That's not the way the law is in Pennsylvania.
So we're going to wait a while.
And if it's very close, it's it's going to take
as long as it takes.
It could be days, it could be longer.
I wonder if there might be some motivation to change
that law.
Senator, when Donald Trump claims victory at 9:30 at night
on election night, are you worried about reliving this again?
Look, I, I think it's a, it's a valid concern
If, if Donald Trump does not win the election, do
you think he's going to admit that he lost?
I don't think so.