The 2024 presidential election is almost here, but it may
take some time to figure out who exactly won the
election.
I'm John Dorman, and I'm a senior politics reporter at
Business Insider.
States like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, they're very close, and it
would not be surprising to see those states not be
called on election night, mostly because of the networks want
to get it right.
But there are some states more safely Democratic or safely
Republican states.
Those states will be called relatively early.
Pennsylvania is a good example of a state where ballots
can't be processed before Election Day, but is going to
provide a lot of clues to the eventual winner.
Donald Trump on Election night in 2020 had a pretty
sizable advantage in Pennsylvania, but that was because a lot
of smaller, more conservative counties report their results earlier.
They have smaller populations, but Donald Trump's lead narrow significantly
in Pennsylvania when the vote came in from Philadelphia, which
is the largest city in the state and it's a
Democratic stronghold.
That was an enormous Biden advantage, allowed him to really
overcome Trump.
So in this election cycle in Pennsylvania, it could be
several days before we know California has a much more
liberal policy when it comes to ballots being returned.
The final result in California will probably not be known
for a week or more because ballots can still trickle
in and they don't have to be received by Election
Day.
While Kamala Harris is widely expected to win California very
easily, I will say there are several House races that
could determine the majority of the US House of Representatives.
So the outcome of the House could be in doubt
actually for potentially a week or more if those swing
districts in California that are highly contested, depending on when
the ballots come in, we could see a situation where
we don't know who controls the House.
For a while in 2020, Georgia was the state that
Donald Trump at the time insisted that he won.
There was no evidence of mass voting fraud in that
state.
He had a slight lead in the state on election
night, but overnight and into the morning when votes from
Democratic leaning counties came in and votes from the suburbs
in the Atlanta suburbs came in.
Biden was able to overtake Donald Trump at the time,
and it was a big deal for Democrats.
But Donald Trump contested and insisted that he had won
the state.
He tried to convince Brian Kemp was the Republican governor
and Brad Raffensperger, who's this current Secretary of State, he
tried to convince them to overturn the results.
They refused to do it.
So Georgia's once again expected to be very close there.
But it's going to be another flashpoint in the polarization
of our politics.
The certification of the vote won't happen, though, until after
the votes are counted.
Also, if there are any particular recounts which may occur
in some of the more competitive states.
The 2024 election cycle will also be a lot different
than 2000.
2020 mostly because in 2020, millions of Americans chose to
vote by mail.
Voters just simply didn't want to go to the precincts
because they were afraid of contracting the coronavirus.
This year, that's not as much of A concern.
So you're likely to see more in person voting on
Election Day, but also early in person voting, which is
going on right now.
The speed at which certain states report the votes, it
really is going to vary.
After the 2000 election in Florida, which was marred by
lots of discrepancies, that they pass voting reform.
As a result, they're generally one of the first states
to report on election night.
Now that the state's a little more Republican leaning.
It may not provide an indicator of where the election
is headed in this election cycle, but it is a
great indicator of how a state can effectively have reforms
and actually report the votes earlier.
As for the outcome of the 2024 race going to
the Supreme Court, and we can take a look back
at year 2000 when it did go to the Supreme
Court, but it was mainly because in Florida there was
actual litigation over the intent of voters when you looked
at the ballot in terms of hanging chads, I feel
like that is less of an issue this year.
The intent of the actual vote is one thing, but
the actual certification of valid votes, it will be really
hard to dispute that.
Unless there is some sort of massive fraud, there's no
indication that there will be a issue at all this
year.
If all goes well, we could know who won the
presidency on election night.
If Kamala Harris sweeps the blue wall states by a
significant margin, and if she picks off most of the
for swing states, it will be really hard for anyone
to say that Donald Trump won the election.
Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump, should he win the presidential
race, it will be really hard to dispute the results,
especially if he has over 300 electoral votes and he
has not only a popular vote margin, but a significant
electoral vote margin.
But as it stands, the race is very close.
We may not know who won the election for several
days, but if the result comes a little sooner, they'll
definitely be a relief to a lot of voters who
pretty much probably want the election to be over the
Constitution of the United States.