With the Republican nomination now just a two person race
Donald Trump leading in the polls,
could tomorrow's primary mark the beginning of the end?
In the Republican primary, NBC's Senior Washington Correspondent Hallie Jackson,
also in Manchester for us.
So Hallie Nikki Haley gets the two person race she's
been longing for.
Is it too late? And even if she somehow pulls
off the upset in New Hampshire,
then what?
Well, then you go to Nevada,
then you go to South Carolina.
Listen, it's not over till it's over,
Savannah. But you're asking, I think,
the critical question here because yes,
Nikki Haley finally has what she wants this
one-on-one matchup. The question now what is she going to
do with it?
How is she going to make a showing here in
New Hampshire?
Her campaign has said all along they're playing the momentum
card here,
right? That if she picks up some steam,
she can show that she can be a viable contender
to former President Trump.
But if she doesn't do well in New Hampshire,
the question is what happens next?
Does she go to her home state,
which tends to lean more conservative in the Republican electorate
here in New Hampshire?
Remember, it's independents that are the critical voting bloc here.
They can vote in a Republican primary.
They are the biggest voting bloc in New Hampshire.
And that is in many ways a natural constituency for
Nikki Haley.
I've heard it from people that I've talked to here
in the state,
people who, for example, were former Chris Christie backers that
are now shifting over to Nikki Haley.
But if she doesn't have a very strong second or
the upset here,
it is a question mark on where her campaign goes.
And that said for for Donald Trump,
don't we can't lose sight of the big picture here,
Savannah. He has dominated for months in this race.
Overall, he is still ahead in the polling in this
state and in many of the states to come.
He has demonstrated his strength and his consistency here.
We're seeing double digit leads in New Hampshire primaries and
South Carolina.
Well, it's her home state.
The Tim Scott from South Carolina just endorsed Trump,
so it's unclear what that path would be even if
she pulls off the big win tomorrow.
Now let's talk about Ron De Santis Hallie,
because he got out on the eve of the New
Hampshire primary.
What do you think's in his mind?
Is he thinking about potentially in a presidential run in
four years,
or is he thinking maybe I'll be part of the
Trump cabinet?
What do you, what do you see here?
I think the calculus based on the reporting that I've
done is the
2028 piece of it, and I know we're not even
through
2024 yet. Don't shoot the messenger.
But I will tell you that that is a conversation
that is happening with those close to Ron DeSantis about
a potential presidential run four years from now.
He himself has even alluded to this on the campaign
trail,
saying in South Carolina just this week,
right before he dropped out,
that voters would come up to him,
caucus goers and say things like,
hey, I'm getting Trump this time,
Mr. Trump this time I'll get you for the next
election.
So that seems to be part of the calculation here
that he can get out this race after,
listen, a distant second place showing,
but at least it wasn't 3rd.
And then perhaps come back in four years and show
that he is somebody who can win a critically important
state like Florida as it relates to,
you know, the electoral make up there
and still be kind of a player in the Republican
field.
Keep in mind as to when DeSantis started to slip
in polling Savannah,
if you look back to the spring,
it was right as Donald Trump faced his first indictment
there at the end of March.
DeSantis hadn't officially announced his presidential run,
but everybody saw the writing on the wall.
He seemed to be potentially the strongest contender,
the strongest competitor for Donald Trump until the court battle
started coming into play.
People around Donald Trump believe that that is something that
helps propel him with voters.
Eric Trump told me that.
He said that he thinks that that the sort of
looming indictments over the former president helped him in his
campaign.
That is when we saw the needle start to move
and we haven't really seen a move back since Savannah.
And that's why we see Donald Trump so often volunteering
to be in those courtrooms.
That's effective for him, it seems.
Hallie, thank you. And Hallie will be back with us
tomorrow morning along with AB,
CS, Kristen Wildcard, Steve Kornacki,
Gangs all here as the very latest fold unfolds in
New Hampshire.
Voting underway tomorrow.