US aid for Ukraine is still stuck in Congress after
Republicans rejected a bipartisan bill that included $60 billion for
Ukraine as well as funding for Israel and border security.
This after former President Donald Trump urged Republicans to reject
any compromise over the US Mexico border.
Donald Trump, who is certain to win all of Nevadas
26 delegates this Thursday when voters go to caucus since
his only rival,
Nikki Haley, has refused to be on that ballot after
Republicans changed some of the primary rules.
Now, to talk more about the US presidential race,
I'm joined by Jordan Cash,
assistant professor of political science at Michigan State University.
Jordan, thanks for being with us.
I'm going to start first with this Nevada primary versus
Nevada caucus.
Haley was on the primary ballot.
Trump was on is on the caucus ballot.
But Haley lost even without Trump on the ballot.
So what does that say about her race and about
her chances of really pushing it through,
at least to the South Carolina primary on February 24th?
Well,
it certainly doesn't say anything good about her chances and
about how things are going to proceed.
Haley was already having a tough time even before the
Nevada caucuses.
She really has been just been hanging on until she
gets to South Carolina.
It, I think, emphasizes how difficult of a road she
has to try to get the nomination.
And I think again, signals at this primary is all
but over and we'll have to see what happens when
Haley gets to South Carolina.
But based on the polling so far and the demographics
of South Carolina and the states to follow,
it looks very unlikely that she'll be able to overcome
her deficit at this point.
So as you were saying,
basically Trump is cruising towards the GOP nomination,
but what about his chances in the general election?
Of course there was the New Hampshire primary where
he won, but Haley did her best score,
if you will, and it started showing possibly
some of what could be called maybe,
weaknesses in the general election.
What did you make of the results and of the
details of the results in New Hampshire?
Yeah, I think you're right that it reveals some weaknesses.
Trump does have a problem with independence with non Republican
voters anyway,
with some Republican voters who just may be tired of
Trump at this point,
right. This will be his third time as the Republican
nominee,
assuming things proceed as they look like they're going to.
So that's something that the Trump campaign is going to
have to focus on going into November,
how to get those independents back,
how to get all Republicans to coalesce behind him,
and if he can pick off some Democrats as well.
Now, that being said, there have been some recent polls
showing that Trump is actually doing fairly well,
especially in swing states, since he's like where I'm at
Michigan,
Georgia, Arizona, where he's running ahead of Joe Biden by
more than a few points.
So right now, he's actually looking to be in a
fairly good spot.
But of course, we're still
nine months away, so a lot could change between now
and then,
and a lot can change.
And possibly it could start tomorrow because the Supreme Court
will be hearing arguments
in the Colorado case. That's to determine whether or not
Colorado was allowed,
was right in removing him from the ballot.
What can come out of
this decision that will take some time to come in
from the Supreme Court?
So there are a couple of things that could come
out.
One possibility is, of course,
the Supreme Court strikes down.
The Colorado court's ruling says that they can't
ban Trump from the ballot,
which would also have the effect of striking down a
decision by The Maine Secretary of State who also removed
Trump from the ballot.
So that's one possibility. Most
commentators and scholars think that's the most likely outcome,
is that the Supreme Court will strike this down.
The other possibility, of course,
is that they uphold the Colorado decision and uphold the
main decision and allow states to strike Trump from the
ballot based on the 14th Amendment to the Constitution.
If that would happen, then it's kind of all bets
throughout.
Some states have already said that Trump can be on
the ballot.
They've refused to follow Colorado in making this move.
But it's hard to say if more if the Supreme
Court would uphold the Colorado decision,
if more states would follow their lead.
And it would make the general election
very messy and possibly require the Republican Party to reconsider
how they're going to do this.
Because obviously your best chance to win is if your
nominee is on the ballot in all 50 states.
That to have your nominee not on the ballot just
poses some real questions,
but also, I think, create some possible tensions among voters.
If you have a large segment of voters who would
support Trump,
who now just can't because he's not on the ballot,
that raises some pretty hairy questions that I'm not sure
how the Supreme Court really wants to get into
Jordan Cash, Thank you so much for your analysis.
Thank you.