Welcome back to Squawk Box. Rick Santelli here live at
CMEHQ with a litany, a long list of important breaking
news.
Let's start out with our first look at fourth quarter
GDP expected to be up
2%. Buckle up, up
3.3%, up 3.3%, That is a huge jump.
Obviously it follows a stronger
4.9, but this is much stronger than many anticipated.
And if we look at consumption,
2.83 tenths higher than expected,
but also 3/10 less than the rearview mirror,
which was 3.1 on the price index
half of last time 1.5,
we're expecting 2.2. Our last look was
3.31.5. How does that figure in
1.5 would be the lowest since it was negative and
that was June of
2020. Now let's go from month over month to core,
shall we? On core, our pricing index
quarter over quarter expecting 2%.
We had 2%, that's the number and 2%
in the rearview mirror. Let's quickly go to
retail inventories. We're expecting on change.
They popped up big time,
up 8 tenths of a percent,
up 8 tenths. And of course,
these are the types of things that boost GDP.
If you look at wholesale inventories,
the same scenario, wholesale inventories breaks two months negative in
a row,
up 4/10, up 4/10. That's the biggest increase month over
month on those inventories since November of last year.
Now let's go to trade,
shall we? On trade, what we are seeing is
-88.5 billion, very close to expectations.
Durable goods. If you recall last time
5.4 that was the best since July of 20 20
and that moves up to
5.5 on a revision and the averaging takes hold unchanged
less than expected.
But when you put the two months together you can
see that isn't a bad number X transportation it jumps
up to
6/10 of a percent, three times expectation,
110th higher than the rearview mirror.
So we could see transportation orders boosted boosted durable goods
and if we look at capital goods orders,
non defense X aircraft a proxy for capital spending it's
up 3/10 much stronger than we are expecting and in
the rearview mirror upgrade from 8 tenths to 1%.
So to see 3/10, yes it's a third of what
we had last month but it is still very very
solid.
Shipments come in up 110th of a percent and finally
initial jobless claims expected to be
200,000, pop up to
214,000. Maybe last week's 187 now arise 189 was maybe
affected by bit of a shorter work week
214,000. That is the biggest initial claims going back to
the third week in December when it was 220,000 and
finally continuing claims
1,833,000 that follows
1,000,806. It's a little bit higher than expectations.
And if we look at interest rates,
we've seen both sides trade.
10s went up to about 418 plus they're back down
to around
4:14. They were around 4:15 down a couple of basis
points.
That was where they were before the numbers 2 year,
no eels are at 436,
exactly where they were before all these numbers.
That represents down two basis points on the session and
I will kick it back to the panel.
I guess in summary, what I found most surprising was
the extra strength in GDP.