There are the numbers, which is to say,
I think it's probably fair to say the economy looks
pretty good
from where we are right now.
And yet then there's the question of how people feel.
What do you think about the distinction between those two
and how these issues are articulated on the campaign trail?
What is that old saying?
It's not how you look,
it's how you feel. I mean I think that's exactly
what we're talking about here because if you look at
all the economic data,
14,000,000 new jobs, I mean corporate profits up,
the stock market at record highs,
you know it things look pretty good,
inflation is coming down. But if you look at groceries,
gas prices and housing, people are still feeling the pain.
And so the question really is going to be whether
or not
the consumer index, which is higher now than it's been
at any point in the Biden presidency,
if if that is going to
be the predominant factor, people are getting more confident or
if this malaise that people are feeling is going to
not
dissipate enough by November. And it's always a race.
You know, President Obama when he was running for re
election in
2011 was kind of experiencing a little bit of the
same thing.
The economy was improving but people weren't feeling it.
By the time the election came in
2012, they were. And so he was re elected.
The question now is whether that's going to happen before
time runs out.
Mark, do you think that do you think time is
going to run out?
I don't know. I think the reality is that the
prices have increased across the board from the time that
Biden became president to now by
17.9%. And there's a lot of hangover those first couple
years.
Steve's right that it's begun to come down and for
the first time real wages are actually increasing.
But that's a lot of of memory over the last
three years for people to have to erase in this
election year.
But look if if they actually begin to reduce rates
and and the economy continues
grow, I think that it could be a plus for
buying by the time we get to November.
But right now it certainly is a drag for him.
And I think people look fondly at the Trump years
and believe that we grew the economy many jobs came
back with a corporate tax relief that was passed in
2017. And so I do think that the economy right
now remains a big advantage for Donald Trump.
When we Mark, I think and and Steve
so I guess there's a difference between inflation coming down
and prices coming down
because the prices are locked much much higher and now
if inflation is coming down from
4-5 to 3 1/2
the the increases we've already seen
they're increasing more by 3 1/2 instead of five that
doesn't.
I may Andrew I have you know I'm from
A22 working house I'm at the the supermarket a lot
because I get off early.
I'm at I have sticker shock every day Mark I
have sticker shock.
I bought some chicken yesterday,
Thin Sliced chicken, 14. It was $8 a year ago,
honestly, or a year and a half ago.
Everything that I scan costs $7.00.
And I'm telling you, Mark and and Steve,
people's paychecks are not where they.
They're not covering what they covered three years ago.
Steve. They're not well. I mean,
I'm sorry, go ahead. Not Joe.
There's no doubt. No doubt.
You're right about that. The reality is,
again, real wages are significantly down from when Joe Biden
became president.
And cumulatively, as you say,
it's roughly 18% that prices have increased across the board,
whereas during the four years of Trump's presidency was about
7 1/2.
So there's no doubt that inflation is the biggest drag
that Joe Biden has to fight right now.
And Steve, don't you think immigration is,
is, is the abortion issue of of
2024? Immigration is definitely an issue.
I think the Biden administration was benefited by the fact
that Congress,
when there was a bipartisan Immigration Bill presented that was
written by a Republican from Oklahoma who's no,
you know, lefty blue guy.
When, when Mike, when the when the speaker just said,
look, we're not going to consider it.
We'd rather have a problem to campaign on than a
solution,
even though, you know, the border crisis is out of
control.
The president should say every single day I will,
I will sign a bill and I will close the
border if Congress sends it to me with executive orders.
You know that. You know that.
You know that. You you're not purple.
You're as mark. He's as blue as as the bluest
sky I've ever seen.
You can't give cover to Joe Biden about.
You cannot give cover about
7.2 million people that are in this country.
Now what? And I'm not going to sit here and
tell you that immigration is not a big problem for
Democrats.
It is. It's a big problem for the country and
and and instead of instead of taking a solution taking
and letting the,
you know, the, the the Congress chose the perfect being
the enemy of the good.
They think they have a better solution.
But the Republicans in the Senate would say they'll never
get a solution like that as long as there's a
democracy in America,
which by the way is a legitimate question going forward.
But that's probably for another show.
And Mark, let me ask,
actually I want to ask both of you a a
money question,
but it's actually a fundraising question.
Clearly President Biden is is winning in the fundraising category.
President Trump obviously also has a whole bunch of legal
problems which are also costing him
quite a a small fortune.
Maybe he'll be able to get some more money out
of the RNC,
but the RNC struggle to to to raise money itself.
How do you see the money piece of this playing
itself out as it relates
to the campaign?
My two cents is I think that Joe Biden,
I'm going to start with mark
my two cents Andrews. I think that there will continue
to be an advantage for Joe Biden.
I think he will significantly out fundraise
Donald Trump. I think there's still many donors who are
reluctant to get back behind
the former president. But at the same time,
I think sometimes the media makes a bigger issue of
this than it is because Donald Trump has an amazing
ability to get press coverage without needing to pay for
it. And I think throughout,
as you've seen in 2016,
two, 1020, he had a pretty small campaign.
I anticipate he will again.
And so I think that he's not going to need
the same resources to get the media attention that often
is what you're paying for.
Steve, can you. I know you said it's for a
different time,
but can you just tell me exactly how
Trump's gonna end democracy. Is it is it gonna be
with the mill?
Is he going to is he gonna take the military
and not leave or I mean,
when you say that are are are you serious?
You don't think the constitution first of all?
First of all, can you tell me whether or not
he'll accept the election results?
He won't even say whether he'll do that.
You mean like Stacey Abrams or Joe Biden or Hillary
Clinton in the past at alt,
you have a right to to ask whether Malins had
a had a problem.
You have a right to to to question whether it's
a fair outcome.
And Democrats have done it again and again and again
over the years.
So how is he actually going to end democracy that
we've had since
1776? Tell me how he's going to do that.
Yes, we first of all,
I think he's been, I think he's been telegraphing how
he's going to do that.
He's going to, he's going to use the military at
the border.
He's going to use the military in cities.
He's going to do things that frankly aren't permitted under
the law today.
And he's already telling people he's going to do that.
And you're absolutely right. He has every right to challenge
the election results.
But when you file 63 lawsuits and you lose 61
many from judges that you appointed then I think there's
a there's a point at which you have to say
I need to accept the outcome of this election
and you don't fight causing that's like John Thune or
or Mike Johnson.
Mike any of these Republicans that are that are supporting
Trump
what do you think they're are they treasonous?
Are they stupid. I think they don't believe.
I think they're. I think you should.
I mean listen
Mark's boss a patriot who stood and defended democracy said
that Donald Trump should not be president again because of
what he did on that day and in the days
that followed. Right. But if it comes between Biden and
how,
I understand.
But OK, when when a push comes to shove,
all these Haley people are going to eventually vote for
Trump.
Mark, are you are you voting for Trump
even though what happened with with Mike Pence?
Are you backing Trump for this election?
Joe, I think that everything that Donald Trump did leading
up to January 6th was dead wrong.
And I think I've obviously had to testify to that
effect.
But I I think that your point is well taken.
The reality is that I think both sides have been
working to undermine faith that voters have in elections and
it's in in Hillary Clinton referred to Donald Trump as
an illegitimate president 2016 the main of the Biden.
So did by I don't remember I don't remember Hillary
Clinton or any other candidate or former president or president
talk about trying to have their own vice president hung.
So this is the part
this a lot of the American public looks at this
and what's that understand what's happening here.
But what's that? That's
yeah, Andrew, I mean I I obviously lived that day
very personally.
So I understand. I I was part of the team
that was evacuated.
And so as again as I said,
I've had to testify that fact.
But I do think that the Democrats use a lot
of hyperbole about ending democracy that I don't know is
helpful.
I think that the reality is a lot of Americans
are concerned of what areas of inflation today,
what are you going to do to help me bring
down prices?
What's the economic outlook and look like?
What are you going to do secure the quarter.
I think those are the issues that people are going
to vote about.