The next six weeks could be some of the most
critical in the
2024 campaign. That's the argument that
NBC's chief political analyst, Chuck Todd makes in a new
piece that's out today.
That, combined with the new data from Super Tuesday exit
polling,
sheds a light on how this political battle could unfold.
NBC's political editor Mark Murray is with me from DC,
and look who's here from DC in New York on
set with me.
Chuck Todd, Remote Partners All right,
lay it out for us.
Why are these six weeks?
I was just talking about
everything's upended. The important six weeks are supposed to be
September.
October. Sure, right. Well, the reason I pointed out here
is that if you look at the last two incumbents,
that
one reelection, George W Bush and Barack Obama,
right after their opponents were coordinated,
they were behind, had had a resource problem,
right. They didn't have as much cash.
The incumbent Death Star did,
right. This is when George W Bush and team framed,
you know, questioned Kerry's war record and he didn't have
the resources to fight back in time.
Mitt Romney. This was the period of time they turned
Mitt Romney's Bain Capital experience into a liability.
And Romney didn't respond. He was sort of out of
he was low on cash.
Well, this six week period,
Biden has this advantage right now.
He's going to press this financial advantage.
We're going to start to see the first hits on
Trump.
What works, what is their framing,
what is their theory of the case?
We're going to learn a lot.
But if it if he wins reelection,
it'll be because he set the predicate correctly in these
six weeks.
And that's what I'm curious to figure out.
Now he needs to what,
what to do when everybody's paying attention because most people
are not paying attention right now.
Right. You want to you.
You sort of like you got to lay the groundwork
for what you hope becomes your closing.
Essentially the argument you're making for that slice of voters
in September and October.
Look, it's very possible that in this rematch environment
that nobody tunes in until October,
right, that the crucial, the truly persuadable voters,
they're like that are not looking forward to this,
will TuneIn. But they're going to wait till as long
as possible.
I'm not watching the entire regular season,
right? Just get me to the play.
It's kind of like the way the NBA is.
You're like NBA regular season,
NBA playoffs. I'm only going to Final Four.
Yeah, exactly. I'll watch that,
you know, and that's where that is.
But I do think we're going to learn a lot
about Biden that whether the Biden what what theory of
the case the Biden campaign has in in their anti
trump message. What is it going to be?
Is it going to how much does it look backwards?
How much is it trying to
run against what could be a Trump second term right.
I think these are choices they have to make.
All right Mark you did a deep dive into our
NBC News exit polls.
What do they tell us about those coveted small number
of real swing voters?
Yeah, Chris. And what we ended up seeing,
whether it was in New Hampshire,
South Carolina or in Virginia and North Carolina last night
and according to the exit polls was Nikki Haley doing
really well with independent,
moderate to liberal leaning of of voters.
And you know, normally when we end up having a
general election lens on things,
you want to be the candidate that's doing better with
the independents,
with the moderates. However, it's important to note,
Chris, that one thing that we have kind of picked
up in all of those early states with exit polls
and particularly in states with open primaries.
And that means that not only Republicans can participate,
but also independents and crossover Democrats.
Is that a lot of the Nikki Haley supporters?
Not all of them, but roughly half
are Joe Biden or Democratic voters.
And in Virginia, for example,
51% of Haley voters ended up approving of Joe Bidens
job.
Now, you know, in a Republican primary,
you normally end up seeing it's around 1:00 to 2:00
to 3%
of Republicans who might end up approving the job of
the opposition president.
But here it was at
51%. Which leads me to believe that these are a
lot of Democratic and Biden voters who are never going
to be voting for Donald Trump or the Republican ticket
in the 1st place. All right,
Chuck. So critics say
that Donald Trump doesn't really understand the issues.
And and I'm not even sure that matters right for,
for his base. How much will the issues matter and
how predictable are they?
And and I ask that because we always say it's
the economy,
stupid, like we've been saying that since James Carville said
it.
Then we said it's going to be reproductive rights.
That's what we saw in
2022. Now what the exit polls are showing us is
it's immigration
or is it maybe not as much about the issue?
Yeah, I'm not as convinced that immigration.
I think we're we're looking at a Republican electorate telling
us what their number one issue is.
We're not looking at the American electorate that way.
I'm not saying that. You know,
I I am. I have yet to be persuaded that
a voter who's vacillating between the two parties
is an immigration voter. That doesn't mean they're not concerned
about it,
but is it a voting issue for them?
Is it? Is there somebody out there?
I'm for Biden, but for his handling of the border,
I haven't seen that voter yet.
Abortion issue still has one of those.
But, you know, I'm just voting on this.
Exactly. There's a lot of those single issue voters on
here.
So look, I I am.
I think that Trump has set up a predicate here.
You know, by by going really dark,
by saying the country is,
you know, is in a mess and all this stuff
he is now.
He's made himself where his campaign only succeeds if events
match his rhetoric.
He's painting a picture. So it's almost like he needs
a migrant crime wave in October.
OK, he's claiming it exists.
It doesn't exist. There's incidents.
There's that one incident in Georgia.
If it's something that feels like it's happening all over
in October,
I accept the premise that yes,
that could then suddenly be a hit swing voters.
But my point is he needs outside events to I
think
create a a a create create support for his theory
of the case where Biden in some ways
it look I'm I'm still of the mindset that it
might be abortion may be the only issue he needs
that it is still until it's settled law
this is going to be a problem for any for
the Republican Party in any national election whether it's a
midterm or presidential.
Chuck Todd, always great to have you here.
Mark Murray. Thank you my friend.
Appreciate it.