I'm pleased to say Pain Capital Management president Ryan Payne.
I'm here to help sort of break all of this
down.
I think to Jackie's point,
she talked about this being an AI rally.
S&P out over the weekend,
Bank of America out over the weekend,
saying that this is a bull market that ends with
euphoria.
But we're not there yet.
Goldman Sachs coming out and saying that the tech stock
rally is grounded in reality.
And yet I'm thinking that you disagree a little bit
on this big AI rally.
Why? Well, I think First off we are getting slightly
your fork.
I don't think we're all out crazy wild you for
you yet,
but you're starting to see it seep in because if
you start looking at the valuations talk about these AI
stocks that's all you can hear about.
I'm tired about hearing about AI stocks.
If you look at this,
the top ten stocks in the
S&P 500 which are basically make cap tech stocks,
their price to earnings ratio now is higher,
the median is higher than it was when he had
the.com bubble in 2000 and when you have the financial
crisis in
20/20/10. So basically from a valuation perspective,
they are getting kind of we use this term before
Bubblicious.
I love to use that economic term and I I
think that is real.
But I will say this,
there's still a lot of cash on the sidelines,
right? Trillion dollars. And if the Fed cuts this year,
it's an election year. I think they're going to cut.
The market says they're going to cut.
You have a lot of investors are getting that 5%
that's going to go away.
They're going to get forced into this market and they're
going to blindly buy things like the
S&P 500, which are just grossly overweighted to all those
AI names,
whether it's NVIDIA, Microsoft, Apple.
So I think the moment is going to keep going.
And fortunately, my crystal ball broke like 20 years ago.
I can't tell you when it's going to end,
but it's better to be early than late.
What about Bitcoin 66,000? You know,
I'm not bringing it up as an asset per SE.
We're we've been discussing it a lot lately,
but I think it symbolizes a lot of the euphoria
that's going on in the market.
And and people get nervous as this keeps going up,
up, up that that bubble may burst.
Well, I think I think you're totally right,
'cause I think it speaks to all the easy money
that's still out there.
If you look at it today,
the capitalization of Bitcoin is
$1.3 trillion. Now to put that in perspective,
you could buy the entire energy sector of the
S&P 500 and that has like
135 billion in cash flow.
You don't Exxon, Chevron kind of go Phillips.
And how much cash flow does Bitcoin generate?
Oh wait, nothing. But it's great for,
you know, funding terrorism. You know,
if you want to put ransom on a casino and
shut them down,
you can use Bitcoin. So I think just speaks to
the casino is real right now or the casino like
environment.
I think that's what Bitcoin.
All right, so we got you on all this bubble
stuff.
But I know you're a guy who thinks this underlying
economy is strong.
You're looking ahead to jolts.
You're looking ahead to the jobs report this week and
I've watched you for months now.
You're guys, this is not broken.
Are you still in that camp?
I am. I think there's some really good stats about
the fact that,
like, inflation has definitely beat out wages for a long
time.
If you go from 2019 to
2022, inflation adjusted, medium household income was down.
But since last March you've seen wages start to beat
out inflation.
It's playing catch up. And you know,
as Wayne Gretzky once said,
you got to skate to where the puck is going
to be.
That trend is probably going to continue,
which means purchasing power is going to continue to strengthen
for the American people.
Now it's been a problem.
You're right. It's like housing on affordability is ridiculous right
now.
12 million people, It's like
50% of their money goes to rent,
right? There's not enough houses.
I think all those things are real.
But I do think the trends going to continue to
change.
And I think purchasing power is going to continue to
be strong because labor market is going to continue to
be tight.
That's going to drive wages,
that's going to drive the US economy.
I'm bullish on this. He's your strong consumer guy.
Yeah, we're going to have you back on.
We could debate about that.
Thank you, Brian. Really appreciate it.
Great being. Good stuff.