Biden and Donald Trump neck and neck in every swing
state,
according to the new numbers from the Wall Street Journal.
Trump leads Biden in Arizona,
Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania by figures that
are all within the polls margin of error.
In Wisconsin, the survey shows the two candidates tied at
46% each. The poll also finds negative perceptions about the
economy remain a problem for Biden.
63% of swing state voters say the US economy overall
is not
so good or poor condition,
while 36% say it's an excellent or good condition.
But when asked to rate the economic conditions in their
own states,
the majority of voters in five of those seven swing
states say it's an excellent or good shape.
Joining us now, CEO of the Messina Group,
Jim Messina. He served as White House Deputy Chief of
staff to President Obama and run his 2012 reelection campaign.
Jim, as we say, these are snapshots.
The two things that I'm looking at right now,
obviously Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, so critical,
they're all very close. I I,
I'm, I'm, I'm surprised by again,
I would never guess this five years ago,
that Joe Biden continues to perform best in Wisconsin.
That Wisconsin of all states seems to be
state. Older white guys actually
aren't thrilled with what what what's happening
with Donald Trump George
tighter in this poll than I've seen in other polls.
So think I think it shows again a good trend
in Biden's direction even though Trump's ahead a little bit
but but this is what I want you this is
what I want some some one or two people in
the Biden White House
may watch this show and this is I want you
to talk to them right now
on this conundrum you go to
and all the polls have shown this
you got individuals how are you doing economic.
I'm doing great. I'm I'm doing I'm doing really well.
And then this folk goes how's your state doing.
Oh it's doing doing great.
It's doing it's doing really well.
How's the overall economy. Oh it sucks.
I mean this there is been this discordant
sort of thinking has been out there for about 6
months now where
75% of Americans say they're doing really well economically in
this poll.
They're saying their states are doing really well.
But you turn it to a general how's
America's economy going? And I don't know,
do they just run to the ideological corners?
What's going on there and what does Biden do to
fix that over the next six months?
Well, Joe, you're exactly right.
A couple things that I think are incredibly important.
In the end, voters are going to vote in their
own best interests.
They always do. And it's why I've always been more
optimistic than the polls.
Because voters think their own lives,
their own economy, their own state economies are better than
they were four years ago.
And they're getting better every single day.
And that's why I agree with you.
In 12 polls out in the last two weeks,
Joe Biden continues to have momentum since the State of
the Union.
You highlighted the state that I care the most about,
Wisconsin. Wisconsin is the tipping point state in over 2/3
of the simulations we do every night,
Wisconsin decides the presidency. And once again,
Joe Biden is strongest in that state for a variety
of reasons that you just looked at,
especially the economic reasons. 75%
of people in that state say their personal economic situation
is getting better.
On the national question, I do think there's several things
holding over it.
One of them is immigration.
I think we need to address the issue of immigration
and talk about it because it is something that worries
voters and has them concerned.
And after you get past those issues,
we can go back to saying is your life better
off and how do we make your life better off?
And that's a sweet spot.
That's where Joe Biden, Joe has always been the best
candidate we have seen
in talking to these voters about their personal economic situations.
So to your point, former President Trump was in Wisconsin
and Michigan yesterday talking almost exclusively about immigration,
talking about migrant crime as he put it,
telling stories that weren't true,
talking about phone calls he had with victims,
families that he didn't have.
We can go down the list of those things,
but you're right about the economy,
which is the unemployment is at historic lows.
Stock market seems to break a new record every week.
You don't have to take our word for it.
Consumer spending is up. People are spending money in this
economy.
So is it that question that Joe was just asking
you about the the overall health of the economy?
Is that kind of a stand in for how people
are feeling
about the state of the country or our politics or
the ugliness of it?
Like how do you, how do you solve that Riddle?
Yes. And I think it's a little bit of the
stand in for voters Like two weeks ago,
3 weeks ago, 71% of Americans didn't think it was
going to be Trump versus Biden.
And they're now starting to say,
OK, it is Trump versus Biden.
And that's the stand in for that as well because
that might not be their dream scenario,
their dream match up, but it's the match up that
we're going to have.
And so they're starting to grapple with this.
And as time goes on,
my theory of the case has always been time needs
to get go on.
People need to continue to feel better.
The economic numbers are teaching up.
People's personal consumer numbers are teaching up.
Those are important stones for how they're going to vote
in November.
So Jim, it is never too early to talk about
270,
the magic number. And there's some development talk about the
map.
Yeah, let's talk about the map for a second because
there's a little buzzing about certain about Nebraska right now.
The governor there has thrown his support behind an effort
that would no longer allocate the electoral votes by Congressional
District because right now it's five votes there.
Definitely Republicans get four and President Biden,
Democrats get the one from Omaha.
If that changes and we don't know that it will,
it's the state legislature is going to look at it.
But if that changes that takes away Bidens best path
to win.
Because if you get if he wins Wisconsin,
Pennsylvania, Michigan, but loses the other swing States and no
longer picks up the one in Nebraska
269 that leads playbook this morning,
the alarm among Democrats that this is possible.
What do you think? I think this is what the
modern Republican Party has become.
They're now changing the rules in the middle,
trying to benefit themselves. This is the the hell that
Donald Trump hath wrought
in the middle of this.
Changing the rules 200 days before the election is ridiculous.
I think you're right. I think there are real simulation
problems when you look at the map that one electoral
vote really matters in the combination of other things.
Then you need another state.
And so the easiest path,
a way to victory. He's always been in Midwestern 3
states combined with Nebraska.
Something tells me they're not going to get away with
it this easy.
And there will be a national outcry for trying to
change the rules here.
But it looks like they're going to look at it.
All right, So everyone stick around.
We'll be right back. We're going to continue.
Jim, can I ask Jim real quickly,
did Maine give the one electoral vote to Trump
in
in 2020? Yes, Sir, they did.
So. So Trump did get that one.
One say, all right, so if Nebraska goes all or
nothing,
Maine should just go all or nothing and it balances
each other out.
Right? Well, there you go.
Look, See, Joe, you're fixing it right here on national
TV.
That's a Republican. That's how a Republican thinks.
Like,
see. Yeah, see, you're going,
oh, as a Democrat. Oh,
you can't change rules in the middle of the day.
I'm the Republican that goes former Republican,
but still campaign's like one that goes,
you know what we'll just
we'll just change. You change in Nebraska,
we'll change in Maine, and then let's go get a
Big Mac.