We have sort of been canvassing opinions from from experts
and the analysis seems to be that continuity
will be insured for for both of
these governments or these administrations.
Where's the uncertainty for you,
particularly when it comes to Iran and the fact that
Raisi was one of the top contenders to replace the
Supreme Leader,
right. That's really, that's really the biggest question I think
now for Iran is who is next in line to
replace the supreme leader who is in his mid 80s
at this point. And many people had believed the the
late president had been,
had been set up or had been in position to
take that spot
immediately. For Iran, they have to,
they're we're expecting elections to take place within the next
4950 days. So that will determine who the permanent replacement
is as president of Iran.
But that you know we'll have to
how that how that unfolds and and who emerges from
that process,
whether it's the current interim president Mohammed Mokbar or or
someone else.
There will be some sort of a power struggle,
we expect between possibly the interim vice president,
the interim president, the supreme leader's son and always a
chance that some kind of 1/3 candidate emerges in this
process.
So the it's it's there's I think even less of
a focus on who becomes the president in 50 days
than on who gets set up from this process to
become the next supreme leader.
And it's not just succession arising in
Iran of course there's also Saudi Arabia as Heidi mentioned
and and perhaps continuity there.
But, but do you see
this these changes sort of derailing the the detente that
was brokered by China last year and and also as
well Iranian support for regional proxies?
Yeah, I think I think the big question is perhaps
on the proxies,
not whether Iran will continue to support them because I
think the Islamic Revolutionary Guard,
Revolutionary Guard Corps is going to continue supporting proxies like
Hezbollah and the Houthis
that will continue. I think both sides in the Saudi
and Iran have see the benefits of trying to sustain
that detente.
In Saudi Arabia, of course you have Crown Prince Mohammed
bin Salman who has been long running the day-to-day business
of the Kingdom and leading many of its biggest initiatives.
Whether it's you talk about the 2030 plan,
the outreach with Israel, the the work with the
OPEC plus group. I mean MBS has been basically at
the forefront of all of that.
So I think there would be very little policy change
coming.
It may slow down some critical decisions,
such as this agreement to potentially reach a deal with
the US over security and energy.
But I think both sides,
when you look at the big picture,
have seen the benefits. These are two of the biggest,
historically biggest rivals in the Middle East.
They are trying to get over that to some level.
So the more uncertainty I think comes with the kind
of internal politics of Iran at this point rather than
the foreign policy of either nation,
it's an extraordinary, I mean,
I think our last guest has said it's it's never
an uncomplicated time in the Middle East,
right. But this comes just
a few weeks after we've seen kind of this shadow
war,
if you will test red lines between a number of
these parties.
And I do wonder how much more complicated does this
get with the leadership change in Iran potentially and how
that impacts this conflict
that we're still seeing in Gaza.
We've also just gotten the ICC levelling these arrest warrants
against both Netanyahu
and Hamas ASIMWA for crimes against humanity.
Yeah, you have the ICC decision.
It's not clear how that will be enforced.
It was, not surprisingly, rejected by all sides
when it came out that they are seeking arrest warrants
for both
top leadership of Hamas and the top leadership of Israel.
I think the big X Factor in all of this
is that conflict in the Middle East between Israel and
Hamas at this point,
we've certainly seen since since that took off in October
that developments on the ground can very quickly shift the
politics in the region.
You could have a major incident take place there.
That does change the calculus for a country like Iran
or a country like Saudi Arabia or even the US.
So that's where I think a lot of the uncertainty
lies.
There's still efforts going on at having some sort of
a temporary ceasefire,
but we've now been talking about that for about 3
months and haven't seen it come to fruition.
And of course you have the internal politics of Israel
as well,
which seem to become seem to be heading in a
in a slightly less predictable direction at this point.