New polling finds President Joe Biden and Donald Trump battling
in every swing state but Biden making up significant ground
from just last month
in the latest Bloomberg Morning Council poll.
Trump leads in Arizona, Georgia,
North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin,
while Biden leads in Michigan.
But after the survey showed Trump up by eight points
in Nevada last month,
the new poll finds the two candidates tied.
Biden has also cut Trump's six point lead in Georgia
to three points and his four point lead in Wisconsin
to just one point,
while making similar gains in Arizona and North Carolina.
All of these results, Joe,
are within the margin of error.
Well, especially in the three states that really matter the
most right now.
We of course the upper Midwest states of Wisconsin,
Michigan and Pennsylvania. But you know Jay Mart,
we're going to state what everybody knows it's May.
These things are so random.
As I was saying before the Morning Joe betting lines
were open and we were giving the plus 13
after the New York Times
Siena poll. The plus 13 in Nevada,
which you could be a lot of which
we we would we would have
piled on as much money as we made as we
did from unsuspecting Frenchmen who thought that Macron actually was
going to lose to Le Pen when everybody was saying
that we put the over under it 58 1/2 and
we're right. But here I want let's just talk about
the randomness of these polls,
Jay Mark because you you know this better than anybody
you've talked to the campaigns
in this poll. The only state they have Joe Biden
ahead in is the one state in the upper Midwest
where his campaign thinks he faces
the the, the, the toughest currents.
And that is Michigan, right?
That's Michigan, right? They think they're comfortably ahead,
that they would never say it in front of a
camera in Wisconsin.
They're feeling pretty good there.
And then again Nevada here we're we're talking about a
13 point lead,
then a seven point lead last month now a
dead, dead heat. I mean
all of these states, all of these states are going
to be so close and Nevada's is one of those
states.
I don't know how they do it,
but it's always close and Democrats always end up winning.
So way too early, baby,
way too early. But any takeaways.
It's close. It's very close.
The last time that the Republican carried Nevada was Bush
in
2004. That's two decades now.
So it it does tilt Democratic.
I will say the this sort of Harry Reid organization
out there is superb.
This is their tallest task yet.
Trying to keep trying to keep Biden is going to
be enormously difficult.
But Nevada is important, though,
because it does give Biden some tiny insurance policy if
he can stay competitive there.
Otherwise, he has to run the inside straight,
which again, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
He can't afford to lose a single one of those.
And that's what the ball game is,
Joe. It's in those three Big 10 states.
Look, I think they're all basically
a toss up right now.
Here's the here's the good news for Biden.
He's got 3 governors in all of those states who
are Democrats who have a lot on the line too,
who need to really pull out a win.
Two of which wanna run for president themselves in
2028, Whitmer and Shapiro. So they have a lot
to help for for themselves and for Joe Biden and
very proven ground games.
You know, I got a lot of faith in those
operations.
Yeah. I mean, the the ground game is kind of
like a field goal in football.
If you can get the score down to about 3
points,
the ground game really matters,
right?
If he's down 13 in Nevada,
it doesn't matter at all,
Right. Correct. Yeah. Look, I was in Nevada over the
weekend talking to the
delegates of the Nevada Democratic Party convention.
A lot of frayed nerves,
but a lot of confidence in the ground game,
in part because the Republicans right now
don't have one. It's not that they have one,
but it's not as good.
They don't have one. Now they will end up with
one.
I think that, you know,
the the concern has to be for the Biden campaign
that directionally,
when all the polls are pointing in One Direction,
one points five points. It usually means that that's where
things are.
But on the other hand,
we've seen these swing state polls fluctuate.
And that's what Democrats are hoping to do is get
this into a jump ball when early voting starts so
that the the edge they have in the field
can make the difference in push Biden over the top.
And Joe to David's point,
I mean, they're close, these are close,
and it shows there's work to do for the Biden
campaign in so many different directions.
I'm torn because I love American democracy.
Me too. And at the same time,
I hate listening to Democratic bed wetting every day.
I want them to be scared so they'll work harder.
I want them to be wetting their bed every morning
so they get up and work harder all day.
I don't want to tell them that they have
money on. Exactly. Yeah, you get up much.
Morning, Joe. I'll tell you.
It's OK. You, you, you,
you, you, you. You clean yourself off and you go
out and you work hard all day but,
but there is an awful lot of bed wetting
here when you consider Claire you've done this you've done
this on on on a very large level
they've got the money they've got the ground game.
They've got the non fascist candidate.
They're out working.
They're out working. Trump, even when Trump's off,
he's golfing or he's he's doing other loony things
and and and you know,
I don't want to tell people I feel good about
this,
but
I feel I feel good about this.
I think I think if they work harder they keep
having more money and they build that ground game.
You look at Wisconsin, their best,
probably the best party chairman in the nation in Wisconsin.
And then you put the governor on top of that.
Do the same in Michigan.
Do the same in Pennsylvania.
Couple great governors there. You know what
they They've got a lot going in their favor.
Yeah. And don't forget we have Senate candidates in those
states,
too. And they are doing remarkably well.
If, if this is all about changing parties,
somebody needs to let the the folks that are responding
to polls in Pennsylvania,
Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, let them know that those Senate candidates
support the same policies that President Biden has embraced.
And you know, last night,
Joe, I was looking really carefully.
It's really interesting to see which party is going to
be more extreme because typically the party that is most
extreme has the most difficulty in these states that swing
back and forth. You look at what happened in Oregon
last night where you add very progressive candidates from local
DA in Portland all the way to two open congressional
seats and the moderates won.
They swept the table.
So I think that what you're seeing here is a
coming home to understanding that Joe Biden is a decent
man with loads of integrity.
And for those swing voters,
that's going to matter. And the more Donald Trump talks,
he is way more extreme today than he was ever
in 2016 or 2020.
He is saying things that he didn't even think about
saying back in those elections.
And the more he's out there,
the more it's going to help Joe Biden.
Far more extreme. Again, Joe Biden.
You know, it's never going to look like Beatlemania when
Joe Biden steps off a plane going to an event,
Joe Biden's
Joe Payne's about normalcy. And by the way,
if you don't think that's
a winning message in 24,
you're not talking to the right voters who,
even if they voted for Trump in 16,
are exhausted. Now I do want to say,
Mika, following up on what Claire said,
let's compare what happened in Oregon last night,
which thank God they voted in some moderate
DA's. Thank God, after the chaos in Oregon over the
past eight years,
maybe they're they're returning to the middle.
I mean they they already like,
you know, handing out, you know,
heroin and gum machines up there.
It's just absolute lunacy, lunacy.
And so thank God the voters said enough of that
and we want moderate DAS,
we want a moderate approach.
We actually want to hold criminals,
you know, responsible for crimes.
So that's important. But we can go from Oregon on
this extremism to North Carolina.
I I never thought I would say this,
but the extremism of the Republican Party in North Carolina
and the gubernatorial candidate and I think their candidate
for Commissioner of Education, I don't know if I have
that title.
Right, are so extreme. Yeah.
They actually have put North Carolina into play,
which I would have told you three months ago was
not possible.
Right. Well, just to counter your earlier statement,
I don't feel good about this.
So you can, there you go,
work harder, everybody. She's scared.
I don't feel good about this as a candidate and
with many members of the Republican Party who do not
adhere to norms and have no boundaries,
do not respect the law,
do not respect human life.
Do not respect a woman's right to choose.
Do not respect, do not respect,
do not respect. So and and and that's why they're
going to lose.
I do not feel good about this so.