These striking images of Chinese warships off the coast of
Taiwan this month,
a dire warning
of a potential invasion that could disrupt the global technology
supply chain,
plunge the world into an economic catastrophe and start a
hot war between the US and China.
And according to one geopolitics expert,
an actual invasion could be over before the US even
has a chance to respond.
So a lot of people assume that this would be
sort of a Normandy type of beach landing.
The reality is that terrain does not allow it.
Dmitri Alperovitch predicted the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
And now in a new book,
he lays out how China could seize Taiwan.
First, he says, the Chinese would mount a lightning fast
assault from the air and the sea.
You're still going to move amphibious assault ships across the
Strait.
Each of them can deliver about 800 troops and more
importantly,
dozens of troop transport helicopters as well as gunships to
do an airborne assault.
They can reach the two airports within 10 to 15
minutes.
They can do that by parking them in international waters.
And Taiwan would feel constrained from firing first because that
would be seen as provoking a war.
You're gonna have these transport ships,
mostly civilian vessels, and have been loaded with hundreds of
thousands of troops,
armored vehicles, tanks, logistics that you need to occupy an
island of 23 million people to cover the attackers.
Alperovitch says China would strike
Taiwan's defenses from a fall.
You're gonna have bombers launched from the mainland.
You're gonna have the largest
cruise missile and ballistic missile and rocket forces in the
world pummeling fixed radar installations,
pummeling naval facilities, pummeling communication nodes.
Then, he predicts, Chinese marines in huge airboats would rush
up the river leading to the center of the capital
city,
Taipei. All this can happen literally within the first 30
minutes of action.
All the while, he says the US president facing an
awful choice
allow the aggression to stand or launch a war that
could kill more Americans than World War Two.
So why is Taiwan so vital to US and global
interests?
One reason Taiwan manufacturers almost
70% of the world's semiconductors,
those tiny boards used in everything from phones and laptops
to life saving medical devices and the vast server networks
that power American industry.
And if China invades, experts say the US or Taiwan
is likely to destroy those factories,
which would spell economic disaster for much of the world.
Or if China manages to capture the factories and keep
them operational,
it would leap ahead in the world's most important technologies.
Alperovitch says that would harm American prosperity and security.
But so would a war with China in the first
year of that war.
Global depression right off the bat.
And that assumes it doesn't go nuclear.
That's right. Intelligence agencies and military leaders have been warning
for years that China is working on plans to seize
Taiwan by force.
The Admiral in charge of US Pacific Command told Congress
in March that quote,
all indications point to the People's Liberation Army meeting Xi
Jinping alleged goal of potentially invading Taiwan by
2027. We haven't faced a threat like this since World
War Two.
China has spent the last two decades modernizing its military
to be able to destroy American ships in the Pacific.
You're going to lose ships,
you're going to lose a lot of sailors,
you're going to lose thousands,
potentially even 10s of thousands of American troops.
Alperovitch says the US must make containing China the focus
of its foreign policy.
the United States has to make it clear to them
that the cost of this conflict are going to be
too huge for the Chinese economy,
he says. That means ending US reliance on China for
things like critical minerals and solar panels.
And it means arming Taiwan in a way that would
make an invasion much more painful than it would be
today,
all to influence the calculations of the Chinese president.
We want him to wake up every single day and
look at himself in the mirror as he's shaving and
say today is not the day.