It's not quite the same story as when we kicked
off the vote count 3 hours ago.
In fact, if you recall just over the weekend we
had that exit poll suggesting that Modi and his allies
would win
a a landslide majority. By that we mean about
350 seats and that is the minimum.
If it's up to Modi,
he's looking for 400 seats which would which would be
a super majority but not the case as the vote
count continues 3 hours on.
These are the numbers that we have right now.
In terms of BJP and his allies,
we're looking at them leading in
278 seats and for the opposition parties,
it is
186 seats. Now they're leading in
186 seats, which is a wider margin than most had
expected.
Remember that the opposition parties have struggled in the last
two elections,
but this time round they came together under one roof.
More than 20 parties calling themselves India.
And they've adopted a policy of ensuring that people know
that Modi's wealth,
Modi's growth that we've seen so far,
8% is what we're looking at has not been equal.
And perhaps it is that messaging that's impacting the voters
right now.
So as it stands now,
the BJP party and its allies seeing a narrower gap
that than that was expected and hence we're seeing that
playing out in the market.
You talk about how the Nifty,
the Nifty index currently down by about 4%.
Remember it rose more than 3%,
which was the highest in about three years.
It's given up more than it gained yesterday.
Yeah, indeed, the markets clearly had not priced in this
result and the results of course not fully rounded out,
as you've made clear to us,
a six week election, 640 million or so voters,
What states? And they all have their own idiosyncratic stories.
Which states are on your radar has Linda going forward?
Well, that basically four states we're looking out for in
particular,
one Modi's own home state,
Gujarat. This was where Modi and his allies won 26
seats,
all 2060 seats that were up for grabs.
Uttar Pradesh, which is the most populous state,
are here, 80 seats up for grabs.
If you want to win the election,
you got to win Uttar Pradesh.
And at the last election in 2019,
we had the BJP and its allies winning
62. We're also keeping a watch on Maharashtra.
This is where Mumbai is.
You know, Mumbai is the financial capital of India.
The, the, The thing is with Mumbai is that the
traditional alliances have fallen through.
So it is pretty much up for grabs.
And the southern states, the likes of Kerala,
the likes of Tamil Nadu,
they have traditionally voted for the opposition this time around.
Let's see if the messaging that we've seen from Modi
has worked,
all the messaging from, from the opposition.
Indeed. You know, it is interesting that Modi put in
a lot of efforts
in states which were dominated by the opposition parties.
At 72, he had the energy to crisscross the country.
You know, talking about the Modi vision,
about the Modi effect and how the country has done
so well under his government.
In fact, over the last 10 years under Modi,
he says he has lifted
250 million Indians out of poverty.
But that doesn't change the landscape.
900 million still below the poverty line.
Wow. 900 million still below the poverty line has,
in terms of the majority for Modi,
translate that story for the market story,
the expectation. Why is it important to have to have
that majority for Modi to have a sizable majority?
What does it mean in terms of policy going forward
for this leader?
You know, it's quite interesting,
right? We talk about India growing at 8%.
It is the fastest growing
G20 nation out there, 8%.
It's massive. But for India,
it is not enough. It has a vision,
it has an ambition. It wants to be a middle
income country by
2047. And for that to happen,
it needs to grow at least
9% in the next 20 years.
And for that to happen,
we have to see very controversial reforms,
land reforms, labor reforms. And Modi will not be able
to put in place all these controversial reforms if it
doesn't have that supermajority.
That is bound to be opposition to the changes he
wants to make.
He needs to get 400 seats out of
543 to push through the reforms.
He needs to make India a middle income nation.