Fox Weather is your hurricane HQ.
As meteorologist, we keep our eyes on the storms.
Of course. We monitor the hot spots,
predict where we could see severe weather and also tropical
activity.
So far it's been very quiet,
but there's certain states that typically have a higher load.
Florida jumps out in my mind,
which is pretty easy considering that sticks out in the
middle of the ocean.
You're surrounded by the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic.
And also as you take a trip from South Florida,
you can get to the Caribbean pretty quickly.
Now looking at early parameters,
and this is something that we tend to do when
the season is very quiet to see when things might
uptick.
There's a little forecast area called the a
bear boxes. I know, kind of fancy.
You guessed it. A bear is a scientist,
as most of our meteorological benchmarks are accustomed to be
tied to a meteorologist themselves.
Well, when we look at these two formation zones,
when storms pass through them,
they tend to hit South Florida.
Numerous hurricanes, including Ian, have passed right through these imaginary
boxes.
Again, we call them the A bear boxes to identify
where these regions are,
but they're imaginary. They're just these places on the map
that represent a high likelihood of storms passing through and
eventually impacting South Florida.
So here's a look at the stats and where this
all came from.
Again, the scientist named A bear is the one that
thought this whole thing up.
We've had 22 major hurricanes that have made landfall in
South Florida since
1900. Well, guess what? These imaginary boxes,
the A bear boxes, when we put them up on
the map,
18 of those major hurricanes have passed through one,
if not two of these areas.
Think about like a Bermuda Triangle,
except there's a little more statistical proof to this one.
So when you have a storm pass through these boxes,
again, by chance, it ends up impacting South Florida.
Here's a look at some of those tracks going through
the first box we have Irma,
one that probably pops out in your mind.
That was a huge impact for South Florida.
It went through a bear box number one.
Sometimes storms go through both areas,
a lot of times just through one,
which qualifies it enough to hit the statistical marker.
A bear box #2 is actually in the northwest Caribbean.
Some of those notable storms,
Ian, Charlie and Wilma, all huge impacts to South Florida
that have also gone through these areas of interest.
Now, sometimes the numbers don't work out.
In fact, we've had four of those major hurricanes miss
the box.
But notice specifically two of those,
Andrew, probably the most famous hurricane that has hit South
Florida,
especially if you live in Miami,
that didn't go through either box.
And also the Labor Day hurricane,
which was from a long time ago.
It was from the 30s.
But if you've been to the Florida Keys,
that beautiful bridge that just sort of falls apart in
Bahia Honda.
Yeah, it was taken out by the Labor Day hurricane.
A lot of history there.
So it's not a guaranteed thing.
It's more of a correlation.
But the numbers are definitely strong and on their side.
And it's interesting to point out the comparisons now.
Hurricane Ian went through box #2 of course,
a huge impact for South Florida.
There's a look at that impact back in
2022, that massive hurricane, but then you have storms like
Hurricane Michael,
which did not move through the air bear boxes.
But keep in mind the air bear box is really
talking about South Florida impacts,
not so much the Florida Panhandle.
So maybe there's something to it.
Well, if you want to learn more about the a
bear box and the forecast and all that good stuff,
make sure you head over to
foxweather.com. We have a fascinating article on it,
so you can learn about it as well.