Even if we see that shift and if in two
weeks and our polling averages,
Donald Trump, you know, the Joe Biden has taken the
lead,
I am skeptical about that is going to last.
And the reason for that is that when you dig
into the polls that I mentioned that seven point shift,
it's not uniform. It's not like 7%
of people are shifting from Donald Trump to Joe Biden.
It's actually the case. And let me make sure I
pull up the correct numbers that in terms of kind
of like their raw support,
Donald Trump's number goes down by 6 points.
But Joe Biden's number only goes up by one point.
What's happening here is that Yeah,
yeah, what's happening here is that Trump supporters in these
polls are going from Trump to undecided or I believe
one of the polls had kind of a vague quote,
someone else option.
That is a very convenient place for people who want
to vote for Trump to park their support for basically
the next month or so while this is happening to
Trump and while it is,
you know, not a great look to be supporting a
convicted felon elect.
But the fact that they're not switching to Biden suggests
to me that they will eventually,
that these are basically Republican voters who will eventually come
home.
And again, five months until the election,
there are going to be more news stories,
including some that are bad for Biden that could jostle
people or even just kind of natural,
you know, when people are faced in the voting booth
with that choice,
they're not going to be able to,
you know, to vote for Joe Biden because they are
a Republican and a Trump supporter.
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