1/3 historic election victory or a vote marred by intimidation
of rivals and the suppression of the Muslim vote.
How you view in this election may well depend on
where you stand politically.
Narendra Modi's praising the event that's predicted to return him
and his BJP party to power over a billion voters.
7 phases of voting, the biggest in India's history.
This election was also hit by a deadly heat wave
that claimed lives as temperatures soared to nearly
50°C. The opposition accused Modi of using the state apparatus
to his campaign advantage,
especially the state media, and two prominent opposition leaders happened
to be jailed ahead of campaigning.
Correspondent Pavni Mittal sent this from New Delhi.
There's been a mixed reaction to the exit poll numbers
released this weekend.
You know, Prime Minister Modi was widely believed to return
for a third term,
but the projected scale of this victory is what has
been controversial.
The stock markets, as you mentioned,
loving the exit poll numbers,
rallying to record high political reactions,
though, have been a little different.
Opposition party saying they're going to wait until tomorrow,
that is June 4th when the actual results are out.
As far as voters and political experts are concerned,
you know, there are many who backed these numbers saying
that even though there are real concerns about the economy,
record unemployment and high inflation,
many voters still believe that the BJP,
led by Narendra Modi, is still best poised to address
these issues.
And many still don't see the opposition as a viable
option.
But there are analysts who believe that,
you know, the scale of the victory projected by these
exit polls are vastly overstated.
And you might see some surprises
tomorrow. But thankfully, voting will be sorry.
Counting will begin in about 14 hours.
So we will have the results hopefully in the next
24 hours.
Correspondent Pavani Mittal with a a guarded assessment of what
it is.
But all other assessments seem to be saying Narendra Modi
is basically in for what they call a landslide victory.
Let's bring in Ashley J Telus,
senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Good evening to you, Sir.
This election, major event of massive proportions
ought we to salute? And I think perhaps we should
salute India for making this happen.
I think so. I think this is a remarkable exercise
in popular democracy.
And I think the outcome is going to show that
Prime Minister Modi is true
historic figure. But if this politics are not,
he will have gotten a third term
with a remarkable achievement that no Prime Minister has had
before,
which is he has won each successive election with a
larger majority than the one before.
Our correspondent was intimating that perhaps the majority won't be
as big this time.
But of course, time will tell.
This is the great thing about it.
There are, for some people,
though, causes for concern. What would you say about that?
I think those concerns have to be taken seriously.
But given the scale of India's elections,
I think this was still largely a free election and
it was probably a fair election as well.
So I think there will be irregularities,
but those irregularities will really be on the margins.
On that issue of fairness,
There would be supporters of the likes of Arwind
Kej Rewal, excuse me, and Rahul Gandhi,
who might have a different perspective on it.
I think, you know, they have legitimate complaints.
I think the Prime Minister and his party have used
power
in in somewhat draconian ways,
certainly unprecedented in India's history,
but I think the bottom line still remains the same.
Modi stands very tall in the Indian political pantheon,
and I don't think anyone is going to claim that
his victory is essentially owed to illegitimate practices.
So 1/3 historic victory. The Muslim vote,
according to some, basically deleted.
Is there any truth in that?
It could be. We will have to wait and see
after the election results when we get our constituency by
constituency numbers and a more detailed scrutiny can be done.
But to my mind, none of these are going to
change the fundamentals,
which is Modi can claim to have won this election
fairly and I think nothing is going to repudiate that
basic conclusion.
When when when Modi was first elected on AA14 point
programme,
the the first point of that was talking about secularism
of the important of that and saying that basically one's
nationality is one's identity,
not one's religion. Now that
coming from France or being in France kind of chimes
of what it's what things are are supposed to be
like here in France where religion is not part of
public life. However, the practice seems to be in India
under Modi that if you're a Hindu,
everything is great and if you're not,
well, you've got a problem.
So is there a sense here that there's something hypocritical
in his approach?
Well, I think that was certainly the position he took
prior to being elected first time around.
But in the second term,
he began to wear his Hindu nationalism much more transparently
on his sleeve.
And my expectation is that once he gets elected and
we will know the results and the magnitude of that
victory tomorrow,
that that commitment to a more Hindu nationalist
government will become even more palpable.
So in some sense, I think what Modi did was
he said what was convenient to say
prior to his first election,
but in some ways the real stripes of the tiger
are now showing.
So a complete change from 2014.
And it sounds like reading between the lines,
you're saying that if you're Muslim,
if you're Christian, you could be in for an even
harder time now in India.
I suspect so. And that is certainly the way the
minorities in India feel.
They feel increasingly disenfranchised by Prime Minister Modi,
the BJP and the RSS in particular,
which is the the social organization that drives the BJ
PS electoral machine.
And they're fearful. They're fearful for what being an Indian
citizen means
in a third Modi government.
Is there a sense that there is almost a cult
of personality at play here with Modi?
Oh, I think that has been demonstrated remarkably over the
last 10 years
that Modi has a following in India
that is simply unprecedented. I mean,
neither Nehru nor Indira Gandhi in decades gone by had
the kind of
populist following that Prime Minister Modi does.
And I expect that will only intensify once the third
term is underway.
We've been hearing a hint of what this might mean
domestically.
How about India's foreign policy under Modi?
I could say more of the same.
But how will that develop,
do you think?
I think there will be broad continuities between what we've
seen,
especially in the second term,
and those continuities are the following.
I think his desire to make India a major world
power
will only receive additional impetus.
The shift that he has made quite palpably
towards the West and the United States in particular,
will also be sustained. I don't see any fundamental changes
there.
He has built up a very special relationship with France
and with Israel.
I think that relationship will also persist and in Asia
there will be broad continuities between the strengthening ties that
India has with both Japan and Australia.
However, I think we we might be in for a
few surprises within South Asia.
I expect that he will reach out
towards Pakistan in the hope that
he can rebuild the relations of Pakistan.
And very interestingly, he offered China and olive Branch in
the weeks leading up to the election
through an interview that he gave with Newsweek magazine.
So I'm waiting to see whether you know,
the Chinese bite on that overture and if there may
be some hope
for a new beginning in in Sino Indian relations.
Indeed, that would be an extremely interesting development in that
case.
We clearly what you said about Pakistan implications perhaps for
Kashmir.
You talk about the relationship with China extremely important thinking
economically too.
I'm wondering about Russia and clearly India is
a customer for Russia's oil at this present moment in
time,
which is something of a lifeline to Moscow.
It's raised questions all the time about
India's stance over Ukraine, for instance.
Is that going to evolve?
I don't see that at all.
There may be minor corrections,
and we're already beginning to see that,
for example, in the decisions India has made very recently
to permit Indian companies to sell munitions to Ukraine.
That has been an interesting adjustment
in India's policy. But the broad,
the broad drift which you alluded to mark,
which is India's very strong relationship with Russia,
I don't see that changing anytime soon.
And that is driven by bigger geopolitical considerations
that are now literally etched into the fibre of India's
foreign policy.
Ashley J Telus of the Karma Nagi and Damod,
the International Peace senior fellow at that August body.
Thank you, Sir, for joining us and sharing your analysis
of what this
third historic election win, as is predicted for Narendra Modi,
could mean for India and beyond.
Ashton, Joe, tell us with the analysis.
Thank you for joining us,
Sir. That's it for apropos.
We have more news to come,
of course, here on France 24.
Do stay with us.