That now we are joined by correspondent Siddharth MP from
Chennai as well.
Siddhanth, thank you for staying with us.
All is have been on the South.
BJP predicted double digit figures in Tamil Nadu.
What can you tell us about that?
So traditionally the South is a region that is voted
quite differently from the North.
In fact, extremely differently from the North is a polar
opposite.
This is a region that has not seen much support
for the BJP.
But this is not a party that sort of takes
this lying down.
This is a party that is always strived to further
that tally here beat the seats or the vote percentage
In the
2021 assembly polls here, there was a major Philip for
the BJP because they stood with the then ruling party
AIDMK.
The ADMK was defending their government.
Of course, they did not succeed.
The power was, you know,
then transferred to the DMK which was elected by the
people.
But then in that election,
BJP saw four ML as being elected to the state
assembly in Tamil Nadu.
That was considerable motivation for the party to actually strive
for
2024 to ensure that they can take whatever they call
the Modi magic to this part of the country.
Well, the strategy is quite simple because in the northern
parts of the country in what is regarded widely as
the Hindi heartland,
the BJP knows fully well that it is their stronghold.
But then there is also this a little bit of
discomfort and doubt that will some seats from the northern
stronghold actually bleed away from the BJP?
Will they go towards the India alliance,
which is where they want to focus on the South
where there are large states like Tamil Nadu,
39 MPs go to the lower House of parliament from
here.
So they would like to capitalize on this region.
Try and see what they can get.
1234 These are the numbers that are largely expected because
although they have quite a big umbrella alliance with the
regional parties,
just some of the stronger outfits and cast based outfits,
it has to be remembered that this is a political
scene largely dominated by the DMK Congress LED India alliance.
That's how it was in 2019.
They swept it then it was not called India,
but DMK Congress swept 39 seats in Tamil Nadu,
38 seats in Tamil Nadu and the NDA got only
one seat.
So this time they're hoping that fortunes would slightly change.
And of course, the political dynamics of alliances have also
changed.
Last time BJP was allied with the
AIDMK here. This time, its a tricornered fight.
BJPAIDMKDMK. So every seat that BJP wins here will be
seen with a great deal of enthusiasm and confidence in
the southern region where they have not seen considerable success
in the past. And its also a batter of prestige
because to give you a wider perspective of Kerala and
Tamil Nadu,
the parties here that rule the state often taunt the
BJP saying,
you know, you should start opening your account here and
then talk about,
you know, ambitious things. You first,
you know, establish your roots here,
you show the numbers, you show the people support in
terms of the seats you have and then establish who
you are.
So that is where BJP sees this as a prestige
battle.
And its important to see how the South will respond
to the BJPS message.
And, you know, in a couple of hours from now,
we should be able to see which way the people
have voted him and Shivan.
Absolutely. So that now I just want to bring in
some figures here.
Of course, pollings are the number counting started just about
15 minutes back.
The numbers that have come in already 60 seats for
the
NDA, 26 for the opposition,
the India bloc and seven seats for others.
Its NDA is already twice as many as the India
bloc.
We might just get to know the result in a
couple of hours.
I don't think we need to wait till the afternoon.
No, no, the results will take long time.
So these are based on the ballot
votes and all that. So it will take many more
hours for us to get the result.
Actual results. Yes, you will get the trends.
Basically what happens is till about 11 o'clock 12:00
is just getting the trends.
The actual counting completion will take,
you know, maybe at least
4-5 hours in any of the constituencies.
So these are not results as such.
They are going to be of course,
the trends coming in and I just want to come
back to a Siddharth MP.
Siddharth, of course, in, you know,
you have been tracking all the developments that came in
from the South with the developments which came in on
the Prajwal Rivana case.
Finally, he was, you know,
taken in by the authorities as soon as he landed
in
in Bengaluru from coming in from Munich.
Talk to us about the implications of that case on
the political dynamics there.
Indeed, Prajwal Revanna case is an absolute shocker.
This was something that was a tragedy that unfolded in
Karnataka right after polling was completed.
But there's also something that has to be noted.
That's a pattern. So on April 26th,
Karnatakas first phase of polling happened and that was also
the region where you know 14 seats went to the
polls in largely the southern part of Karnataka,
Bengaluru and adjoining districts and so on.
The southern parts in the coastal belt of Karnataka voted
at that point in time.
So this is also the region where the,
you know, Deve Gowda family and their strongholds are.
They contested in three seats as part of the BJP
LED alliance.
That is the JDS which is Prajwal Revanas party contested
as part of the BJ,
PS NDA alliance. So Prajwal Revana himself seeking a second.
So what we have to keep in mind is that
this entire thing broke out just a day after polling
was completed.
And Prajwal Revana also fled only after polling was completed.
So there was a one week interim between the first
phase of polling in Karnataka and the second phase of
polling in Karnataka roughly.
So in that one week interim,
this case blew up, details started emerging.
There were traumatizing accounts that emerged.
And of course, there was a huge political uproar over
it and there was news of Prajwal Revana having fled.
So the impact of this is something we have to
watch particularly northern belt of Karnataka because the southern belt
of Karnataka had already voted much before this case and
its details had actually arrived.
So its we have to observe northern belts of Karnataka
particularly Women Voters.
So we will have to observe how they sort of
perceive this issue because this is of course pertaining to
women and women safety.
Its not that males don't look at it that way,
but then this is something that concerns Women Voters more
and then well have to see how this emotionally effects
and sways them one way or the other.
So that's something we have to watch.
But also the northern parts of Karnataka anyway are not
seen as JDS strongholds.
The real impact would be something on BJP and BJPS
candidates because they're in an alliance.
So will it be seen as though BJP is complicit
in this because they knew or they were at least,
you know, in partnership with JDS despite,
you know, being aware of whatever happened with Prajwal,
Revanna and the entire controversy.
So will it dent BJPS prospects there in the northern
parts of Karnataka?
We have to wait and watch Heman Shivan
right now. Mr. Pada, if I could just come to
you on the same question.
Siddharth has, of course, painted a picture for how this
really played out and what the implications were.
What is your take on this?
Well, you know, I come from Karnataka,
so I'm a little more
familiar with what is happening there.
You see, Karnataka is one state Congress was looking at,
as you know, big harvest they can get.
They were looking at 15 to 20 seats from Karnataka
because they have a government there now for the last
one year
and in, as we know,
in May 2023. So the Siddaramaiah government came to power.
They got a massive mandate,
I mean 135. And the BJP government which is there
in power,
they lost and they got only 66.
So since then the Siddaramaiah government has implemented 5 guarantees.
You know these guarantees,
free bus service for women
₹2000 per month to a head of the family,
woman head of the family,
like this. They were from 5 guarantees
and Siddaramaiah government got out of the way to fulfill
them keeping the loks of election in mind.
So that being the case,
you
know
the
talking about the political landscape in Kerala,
has the BJP finally made inroads there?
Of course, we were talking about Tamil Nadu earlier with
our correspondents that MP
they were BJP was hoping for double digit figures in
Tamil Nadu.
Exit polls are not suggesting that.
But when it comes to Kerala,
have they finally made inroads or started their account there?
Probably. So I think, you know,
Thrissur was one seat with they were likely to win
and Thiruvanantham is another seat.
So if they get, you know,
this will be just getting the foot inside the,
you know, door, Yes. So if that happens,
you know, and also I was looking at the,
the, the, the voting percentage.
So they were getting about from the exit poll about
2527%. I know from raising from 12:14 to go up
to that level,
that will be, you know,
big boost for the BJP.
Do that. And you know,
this stigma that was always present regarding the BJP not
having a foot on the door in the South or
any presence.
What you know for that matter,
how crucial will be the states of Tamil Nadu,
Kerala, Telangana, Andhra that you know,
they are finally able to now have a proper presence
there.
I think the Prime Minister Modi was very,
very conscious of this fact
that, you know,
the South is not really tips he made to these
southern states,
tips he has made and the number of,
you know, attempts has made.
See 2014 and 2019 also he could not make much
of an impact and assembly elections.
See he has not been able to make an impact
in assembly elections.
In the 2023 assembly elections he campaigned heavily in Karnataka
but still the BJP lost.
So he is very conscious of the fact that BJP
hasn't got the acceptance in the South.
So he went out of the way this time to
you know
to garner support for the BJP and its looks like
they are getting some traction especially in Tamil Nadu and
Kerala which had shut the door for BJP.
It was only Karnataka which had welcomed BJP and Karnataka
has been consistently supporting of the last 3-4 elections.
But Andhra Pradesh, they didn't have any
seats or even Telangana also they are only three or
four seats.
So it looks like they're making
winning lots of seats even in Telangana.
And in the you know
with the TDP, Andhra Pradesh also they are winning more
seats.
So it looks like from
29 seats, the one in
2019 out of 130 in the South,
probably they will go up to about
65560. So it will be a huge,
you know, this thing for them,
right, Sir. I also wanted to emphasize a point that
you'd made earlier that right now the numbers that are
coming in are only a gauge of the trends that
are appearing and that are emerging right now.
One other point that really sticks out here and that
we've been talking about as well.
And I just want to get your thoughts on this.
The opposition block, its really still at this point hoping
to spring in a surprise of sorts.
What would you say is the basis for this?
I don't know. I think they
they have to come out with that.
You see its you know what,
what did Rahul Gandhi say
yesterday? We are winning 295
and what
is this Musewala song? I mean,
you know, he's taken inspiration from Musewala and he turned
back to make that statement.
He came back to the campus to say that
you see this magic number has come from Musewala song.
So I think Musewala has to come and you know,
give them that kind of number.
So its really bizarre. I mean you know,
they should have worked really hard if they wanted to
do well.
And if its not going your way,
you need to accept it.
This is democracy, you know you can't.
I'm not just going to accept what is coming out.
So once the figures look,
they need not accept what the,
you know, exit polls, exit polls have said because exit
polls have gone wrong.
They can say, look, we are not agreeing with this.
But then to turn it around and say,
look, there is a conspiracy.
And then to say Election Commission has done this,
has done that or home minister has spoken to
195, you know, 150, you know,
D CS because who are the,
you know, executives of conduct the elections.
I mean, these are dangerous,
you know, statements to make without any kind of,
you know, support. So that is why the Election Commission
has asked Jayaram Ramesh,
the spokesman of Congress, you let us know what evidence
you have that the home minister spoke to this disease.
So without that, you know,
you can't make some kind of bombastic statements and get
away with that.
You're right. These are as you mentioned,
these are just exit poll numbers and of course,
were waiting for the final numbers would also heard Shashi
Tharoor earlier say that exit poll numbers often tend to
be deeply unscientific.
Those are the words I believe we used.
That being said, Sir, let's talk about what's happening in
Srinagar.
We were discussing this earlier as well.
What is what is your take on how the election
process has
played out there? In fact,
you know, one of the comments that the Prime Minister
made in an umpteen number of interviews he gave,
I mean, that is one another highlight of this election.
You see, he was accused of not talking to the
media
earlier. He said, you know,
he keeps away from media.
He doesn't hold press conferences in this
this time. He has bombarded the television.
I mean, I think which
took the opposition also by surprise.
And it was so well orchestrated,
I must say. I mean,
as a as a communicator,
I could see how he was,
you know, doing it. He has given interviews to channels
which are,
you know, in the region in which elections are going
to happen.
So if the Tamil Nadu election was giving was,
you know, going for elections,
he gave to Sun TV,
which is huge there, you know,
like this, it is all bad.
So what I mean to say is that,
you know, the Prime Minister knew that this is going
to be a very,
very important election and that's the reason why he went
out of the way to.