What matters in a negotiation, ultimately,
is time and urgency. Deals close when both parties are
in a hurry.
And sadly for the administration,
the clocks of Hamas and the government of Israel
are actually more In Sync than the
Biden clock.
I don't think the Prime Minister would accept a comprehensive
agreement
even though he signed on to it,
unless somehow he could ensure that Hamas
would not remain as a vibrant or vital force in
whatever post conflict governing structure exists in Gaza.
And Hamas is not going to trade the remaining hostages
even if they agreed to a phase one deal,
limited exchange for six weeks to expire.
They're not going to trade the remaining hostages running short
in cessation of hostilities
and withdrawal of Israeli forces
and security and safety for their senior leaders.
So I think there would be a chance for a
phase one,
but not a comprehensive plan,
No.
So it all comes down to the end game essentially
what the day after is going to look like in
the fundamental disagreement between Israel and Hamas on their different
views of of what that is.
Is that something that frankly any of these mediators are
going to be able to help them negotiate,
whether it's Qatar, Egypt or,
or the US? Or is this literally just the Netanyahu
government and the leaders of Hamas?
I think it's the two major combatants,
Hamas responsible for the terror surge of October 7th
and the Netanyahu government now minus
Benny Gantz
for conducting the operations in an effort to
destroy Hamas's military capacity and the resulting exponential rise of
Palestinian deaths and the humanitarian catastrophe
in Gaza. So it's the two,
it's the two combatants. They've controlled the ebb and flow
of this conflict from October 7th
and they continue to control it now.
And in a conflict where both sides see
the states as existential or near existential,
the the influence of outside parties,
even one like the United States that has leverage over
the Israelis
is going to remain very limited.
And I'm afraid that's where we are right now.
Well, as you know, Aaron,
there have been a lot of questions about whether a
new front could open to the north
with Hezbollah. Earlier today, we spoke with retired General
Kenneth McKenzie, is former commander of U.S.
central Command, who told us this about Israel's ability to
potentially fight a war on two fronts.
Israel does have the capacity to fight A2 front war,
but it would be a war fought at a much
higher level of risk
and there would be far greater damage to Israel if
they if they enter this war.
It's important to understand what hasn't happened so far is
a massive LH Lebanese Hezbollah attack into Israel.
There have been tit for tats across the border,
but Hezbollah has not chosen to strike S with the
very lethal,
very highly capable weapons that they've received from Iran.
So Aaron, what's likely to happen first a ceasefire with
Hamas or a new war with Hezbollah?
Well, they're, they're tied in together.
It's really difficult to imagine.
And maybe the maybe risk aversion will prevail.
Maybe the government of Israel and Hezbollah
don't want to open the box of what General McKenzie
is talking about.
And what he's talking about is Hezbollah is
120,000 to 200,000 high trajectory weapons of various ranges of
withalities and precision that can cover most of Israel's infrastructure
and most of its population centers.
And on the Israeli side,
a massive ground campaign, these four divisions in Gaza,
Lebanon is much bigger to destroy Hezbollah,
push it back from the border and destroy,
unfortunately, Lebanese infrastructure. A lot of Lebanese are going to
lose their lives and it may spark a regional war.
I don't think, however, that the risk of such a
an occurrence can be discounted as long as
the Israeli Hamas conflict goes on.
And that that I think is the the
sort of double bind that the administration finds itself.
But I'm still banking on the risk aversion that for
the last 18 years,
since summer of O6 has kept Hezbollah and Israel from
launching
the kind of military engagement that I just described.
Because because if they don't and they get into this,
Middle East is going to see something it's never seen
before.
A major regional war, rising oil prices,
plunging financial markets and an agreement stability which could involve
poor Iraqi and Iranian militias striking US targets,
Israel and Hezbollah in a massive exchange.
Iran will get into this.
We will get into this.
And I suspect the longer it goes on,
the greater the chances are that
the Gulf will. The Gulf will be an arena of
competition,
and nobody wants to see anything like what I described.
I just don't see at this point how you can
completely discount the risk unless you can get a ceasefire
in Gaza.
It's a terrifying picture that you're painting,
Aaron, But just so we understand you clearly,
essentially you think if another front were to open between
Israel and Hezbollah directly,
that opens the regional conflict because it won't just be
Israel and Hezbollah,
it will be the United States and Iran that are
directly
drawn into combat. Hard to imagine they stay out of
it,
given that the nature of the exchange.
Remember in the summer of O6 you had 5000 Hezbollah
with relatively low tech weapons shutting down the northern half
of Israel from Haifa to the Lebanese border for 33
days and 34 days and they were launching rockets on
the 34th day. Now you have a massive arsen supplied
by Iran and you have not just unguided short and
long range missiles,
you have precision guided missiles which can target Israeli population
centers and critical infrastructure.
So it doesn't have thousands of those.
They have hundreds of them,
but they can still do enormous damage on the Israeli,
on the Israeli home front.
So again, Middle East has never seen anything like what
I'm describing
and that's why it needs to be avoided.
Can it be?
I wish I had the answer to that.
Is almost Hochstein enough to stop it from happening?
Smart guy with a lot of really good proposals in
his pocket.
And I and I think there is a deal
that would essentially de escalate the situation.
I just don't see how you get out of it
without first quieting down the Israel Hamas front
because Hezbollah, I I think Hezbollah does not want a
major engagement with with,
with Israel right now. I think the Iranians
in the day, with the death of President Raisi and
elections coming up,
I don't think they wanted.
And you know, the Prime Minister is due here July
24th
to address the joint session of Congress.
Frankly, I'm not sure he wants that right now either.
But again, there's got to be
enough will and space on the part of of the
combatants to let Amos Hochstein very talented,
very focused to do his work.