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Plug into the final sundays crime of twenty nineteen and of the decade last week we

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took a look at the here and politics this week we looked at the year ahead what...twenty,

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twenty varying the canada's political parties liberals

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would be governing with a minority government conservatives will redefine themselves with the leadership

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race not to mention the other parties looking to make their mark let's get to

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it for now joining me today in ottawa freelance

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...this season riley hi susan hi john paul the

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...hello john hello...any draught of

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the cable channel journalist and culture and society editor of the conversation I

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...I got solved when it comes to the liberals that start off with them and our first

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walk what will the team be watching for in twenty,

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twenty susan do you want to start us off yes,

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there are three immediate challenges the first one in february the

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cabinet has to decide whether or not to approve the frontier

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mine in northern alberta this will be if it's approved the largest oil sands

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play since twenty fourteen approving it will obviously increase emissions it

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will stand in sharp contradiction...talk about climate change if

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...the other end of...doesn't go ahead they'll be more uproar in alberta no doubt so,

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it's a real challenge and everybody watching to see which way they turn john what's in your crystal ball well

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the liberals have a particularly difficult circle to square on the one hand growth has been a week in

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the last few months of job creation has been slope there's some people who are worried about the possibility of

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recession on the other...on the other hand the government is committed we

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...to committed during election campaign to sharp increases in carbon taxation and other

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measures in order to bend the curve on carbon dioxide production

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of global warming that would normally have a drag

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...of a drag on the economy so how do you promote economic growth on the one

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hand while also increasing carbon taxation on the other hand that is a challenge the

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liberals...face and I think in the year and years ahead...what do you think

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the levels be facing in the coming twelve months I mean I think for the liberals the challenge will be managing to

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...figuring out how to stay on message

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and focus and not necessarily be derailed by their own errors I think we've seen largely that

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it's their own unwillingness...ability to communicate mistakes or failures

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are failings and that is really kept them from accomplishing minutes out of too many

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...goals?

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it's almost the tale of two situations here where you have the party...a minority governing situation

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you also have brand true though which most people would argue was tarnished somewhat

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duringvarious events that transpired during the election so susan what does

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it take for this look like a successful year for trio at this point well

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turns already started off I think on the right forties definitely dial back to show boating

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and that if he can continue with that that's probably a good thing that being said the

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futures always predict my who would've predicted black face who predicted the essence e

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level land controversy even if true...remains cautious

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and less self-congratulation sorry there's always a danger of a note some...

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break on his front bench and I think I think that would really hurt

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him again I think I think

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that's something that nobody can predict nobody can defend against but that could be very damaging,

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...john what do you think is a further potential jeopardy for the prime minister this year

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...about jeopardy let's talking about opportunity because I as I said the

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jeopardy is economic recession or the economic drag a caused by a measures to

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fight global warming the economic opportunity is a traded with...kingdom

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...johnson won the election the united kingdom will leave the european

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union at the end of january the british government will be working very hard to secure

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...say what one with the obviously with the you and,

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they want another one specially with united states here

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...help we have a free trade agreement with the european union that is state of the art if

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...can inc a very quick free trade agreement with the uk can serve as a

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template the american agreement then we will have taken the lead

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in helping to re-establish normal trading relationships with

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...that is no longer part of the european union and that would be quite an achievement for this government

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okay vicki opportunity or jeopardy what do you think

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...should watch for this year I think they should they should watch for some I guess the

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server business...being either...from their side which is from the left, you know,

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I think john pointed out that there's a there's an economic tension betweenmaking

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climate climate change moves and policy changes and fostering certain types of economic

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changer progress going forward so I think they'll be critics especially on that point,

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you know, whether it's approving a mind...you know,

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some of the more pr related concerns I think that'll be the challenger hazard for

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What is potentially the...area for greatest...jeopardy for the party itself so going forward

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we are looking for black swans are we looking for here's a chance to kind of blue sky

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in terms of what the liberals might really have to be careful of susan?

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The unexpected I mean I think they are heading for an economic

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squeeze possibly depending on what happens to the us economy will they follow through with

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their ambitious plans on climate change the largest mistake that they may last time which

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...a little too was a real failure to communicate and why they were doing

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certain things certain complicated issues that they were faced with irregular migration, for example,

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immigration I should say they never really explain what their policy was on that

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more recently their refusal to obey the canadian human rights tribunal

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the judgment having to do with compensating the victims of

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in equal child welfare for indigenous

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...child in social services for indigenous gets...maybe they have us argument for

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not going ahead with this particular plan they don't make it clear they never tell you why

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they're why they're doing what they're doing and it just makes them look terrible if

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they learned from that they may avoid the pitfalls in the future

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ok john you've talked opportunity when it comes to a trade with europe but let's talk

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pitfalls well there is the political challenge of who they will face

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across the aisle after the conservative leadership campaign ends in the...

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either the spring when the fall of next year remember the just...intrude all

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came within a hair's breadth of losing the last election he got really lucky on the vote splits

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and on but the party lost the popular vote was reduced to minority to block is

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research in quebec the party's been practically shut out of the west and all of that

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...andrew sheer as conservative leader which issue is gone and somebody else will plays

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...if that person is a more effective opponent than the last one

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than the liberals will have to be very careful

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about how they confront that conservative leader because that conservative leader could well

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...political enemy last word in this round goes to vicki I think I agree with

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john which is that they have a bit of a break right now in that they don't have a million opposition

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...call lester on an exciting the leader or a future that the party itself

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...excited about they've got some space and time there but I think we're the liberals

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...challenge always is almost always striking a balance between celebrating some of their successes on

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...on the policy friend, you know,

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even the carbon tax...you could say has been a policy

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success for them but being able to communicate that...also answering clearly, you know,

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where they maybedeviate from what people...mike or where

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...you know, maybe steadfast to a decision that is not as palatable communicating

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and the way that's effective...that in a way that's fair and reasonable appears human

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...is the challenge...put our crystal balls on pause for

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their now but up next look at the year ahead for the conservatives who are

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place anders here is leader band will the conservative

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party change any of its policies that's coming up next on this...this...